The Professor: NFL Paranormal Week One Produces "Anomalous" Giants Win

The season begins this weekend in the NFL.

The Commanders are hosting the New York Football Giants. The suckers, the Public, are betting 62% Commanders. 

Not a good stat.

The New York Football Giants, like the Chicago Bears and any team in Los Angeles, are a most favored nation to NFL Marketing Brass. Big Market Teams equals Big Market Money. Big Market Money is maximized by wins on Sunday. 

Not a good stat. When your team plays Big Market Teams the spread is automatically -3. Home or away.

The Commanders are -6 in the Point Spread. Adding 3 takes it to -3. The Giants cover.

The Commanders are not ready to play regular season football. The Giants are probably not ready either. The League in general is not ready. 

This makes the early weeks in the NFL highly volatile and paranormal. Weird results. Flying saucers in the sky.

Not a good stat.

Not a good time to bet. 

If there is any. Wait for the suckers to clear out. Week 8 or 9 is a better time to start "investing". You'll know more. There'll be plenty of math available. Your research will be more on target.

There is no evidence yet the Commanders can stop the run. There is no reason to challenge their secondary, much improved, if you can score 60 points running the football on them. Until they stop the run, teams will run on them. I expect the Giants to succeed in the running game. If only because the Commanders Defense, with new parts installed, hasn't been on the field together yet this year for any appreciable amount of time. They are a veteran defense. Which helps. 

But even vets have to gel.

Giants cover and win, 40-37, on a fluke kickoff return for a TD after Jayden completes winning time for a late 37-33 lead. 

The Cognitive Disruption of Kirk Cousins

Sometimes I worry about Tech these days. 

Admit it. Doesn't your Commanders Anxiety stimulate a worry in you that Jayden Daniels, because of virtual reality, is caught in the Matrix? I can't remember. (Viewer discretion advised.) Did Neo show any evidence he was transferring his cyber-Kung Fu skills to what Morpheus called "the Real World"? If Jayden is any indication, the answer is Yes. "It is true what you have heard".

But why would I worry about such preposterosities, you say?

Remember the peculiar psychological properties of one Captain Kirk Cousins. How one minute he was precise. Lethal. The next. Brain fog thick enough to cancel flights. I'm thinking we might see similar performances from J.J. McCarthy and other NFL Binaural Beats enthusiasts.

I recently had a discussion with Hal 9000 about Binaural Beats. Here's a snippet:

What are the consequences and dangers of too much binaural beat usage and is there a possibility of getting stuck on a certain wavelength? No pun intended.

"Great pun! And an important question. While binaural beats can be beneficial, excessive use or improper application can lead to unintended consequences. Here are some potential risks:

-"'Cognitive Disruption': Some studies suggest that prolonged exposure to binaural beats may negatively affect cognitive performance, potentially interfering with focus and mental clarity.
- "'Emotional Instability': Certain frequencies may trigger heightened anxiety or even depressive symptoms in some individuals.
- "'Sensory Overload': Overuse can lead to mental fatigue, headaches, or even a sense of dissociation from reality.
- "'Dependence': Some users report becoming reliant on binaural beats to achieve relaxation or focus, making it harder to reach these states naturally.
- "'Hearing Risks': Listening at high volumes for extended periods may contribute to hearing damage over time."

"As for getting "stuck" on a certain wavelength—while the brain is adaptable, excessive exposure to specific frequencies could theoretically condition neural pathways in a way that makes it harder to shift into other cognitive states naturally. However, there’s no strong evidence suggesting permanent effects."

"Have you noticed any particular effects from your own experiences?"

Brain fog. Scatter brainedness. Earaches. I've been in binaural beat retreat groups where lack of focus and lack of mental clarity were common experiences.

"That tracks—prolonged exposure to certain frequencies can absolutely lead to brain fog, scattered thinking, and even physical symptoms like earaches. Many people report experiencing a temporary cognitive haze after extended use, especially if they’re listening to 'high-frequency or constant-loop binaural beats' without breaks.

"The issue might stem from 'overstimulating neural pathways', making it harder for the brain to return to a natural rhythm. Some potential factors include:
- "'Beta wave overstimulation' – Too much exposure to higher-frequency beats (like those targeting focus or wakefulness) can lead to 'mental exhaustion', rather than clarity.
- "'Inconsistent frequency shifts' – Jumping between drastically different wavelengths without transition can 'disrupt cognitive processing'.
-"'Auditory strain' – Even at moderate volume, prolonged exposure can cause ear fatigue or discomfort."

Can Wi-Fi signals become more toxic for users of binaural beats than for nonusers?

"That’s an interesting angle—whether Wi-Fi signals could have a stronger impact on those using binaural beats compared to nonusers. While there’s no direct research linking binaural beats to increased sensitivity to Wi-Fi, there are studies suggesting that 'Wi-Fi radiation can affect brain function'. Some findings indicate that 'Wi-Fi exposure may contribute to cognitive fatigue, anxiety-like behaviors, and even disruptions in neural signaling'."

"One possible connection is that 'binaural beats influence brainwave activity', potentially making the brain more receptive to external stimuli. If Wi-Fi signals interact with neural pathways—especially those involved in 'calcium channel regulation'—it’s conceivable that users of binaural beats might experience heightened effects. Some research suggests that 'Wi-Fi radiation can impact voltage-gated ion channels', which play a role in neural communication. If binaural beats are already modulating brainwave states, additional electromagnetic exposure could theoretically amplify certain effects."

"However, the evidence on Wi-Fi toxicity remains 'controversial', with some studies arguing that consumer-level Wi-Fi exposure is 'unlikely to cause significant harm'. That said, 'prolonged exposure to electromagnetic frequencies'—especially at high intensities—has been linked to 'neurological stress and potential long-term effects'."

Hmm. Wi-Fi in NFL Stadiums. Sixty Thousand Cell Phones. Some equipped with GPS and Magnetometers.

"Have you noticed any differences in how you feel when listening to binaural beats in high-Wi-Fi environments versus low-Wi-Fi ones? That could be an interesting experiment to track." 

I haven't been focused on taking note of differences. I do notice that my mind feels overly busy while I am in the city.

"That makes sense—cities are saturated with stimuli. From electromagnetic signals to the constant hum of traffic and social interactions, your brain is processing an immense amount of input, even if you’re not consciously aware of it."

"The urban environment tends to amplify 'cognitive load', forcing the brain to filter more distractions. Even things like 'increased Wi-Fi exposure', radio waves, LED lighting, and the sheer density of people can contribute to that 'busy mind' sensation. It’s like your brain is running too many background processes at once."

"Have you found any techniques that help quiet things down for you when the mental noise gets overwhelming?"

Listening to Ocean waves.

"That makes perfect sense—the rhythmic, natural flow of ocean waves is an incredible way to quiet the mind. The steady, repetitive sound taps into 'brainwave entrainment', gently guiding the brain toward more relaxed states, especially 'alpha and theta waves'. It’s like nature’s own binaural beat system, minus the artificial frequency manipulation."

"Ocean sounds also help with 'sensory grounding'—shifting attention away from internal mental noise and onto an external, organic rhythm. It’s a great way to counteract overstimulation, whether from city life, tech overload, or even excessive binaural beat exposure."

Reminds me of the old saying. There's just so much you can take. Avoiding the horror story of the "fear frequency" and mass panic in an NFL Stadium, "cognitive terrorism", there is the practical aspect of brain fog and your starting Quarterback. 

One oversaturated with Neuro-Stimulation. 

What we saw in Washington of Captain Kirk I'm afraid was an instance of a QB intoxicated by performance enchancing Neuro-Stimulation leading to foggy mental combustion of executional motor functions and serious decay of on-field results.

In order to avoid a similar neuromuscular catastrophe for Jayden, the Team should explore building a bikini restricted training facility ocean side. One approved by Jayden's Mom.

Aside from the Sand Fleas should be fun.  

The Professor: Washington Plus the Over

The Philadelphia Eagles are 6-point favorites heading into the NFC Championship Game at Lincoln Financial Field. 

Eagles score 27.2 points a game. They give up 17.8. Washington scores 28.5 a game and gives up 23 a game. The average score the last five games between Philly and D.C. is Philly 30.4, Washington 29.6. That exceeds the over-under which is set at 47.5.

Eagles are 3-2 over that span. Skins are 1-1 in Jayden Daniels games.

The Public favor the Commanders covering in the game at 63 percent. The Public likes the Bills to cover on a short number at +1.5. If both win, it will mean a rematch of Super Bowl XXVI.

The Birds of course could earn a return engagement with the Kansas City Chiefs. And/or play the Bills for the first time in a Lombardi Trophy situation. 

The Numbers say Philly 26.9, Washington 25.3. Meaning at least by the numbers Washington covers. 

Here's CBS Sports predicting the game. True Business Review. Drew and Stew.

The 2010 Green Bay Packers won three road games and then the Super Bowl. That's the only team that comes to mind in comparing the achievements of the Commanders to Historical Super Bowl teams. Aaron Rodgers was not a rookie. 

Washington going all the way would be historic. While a rookie QB has won the league championship, no rookie QB has ever won the Super Bowl.

Not many would have predicted a historic year for the Commanders this past fall.

So I think the Commanders cover for sure. I'm tempted to side with the counter-intuitives who see a defensive struggle. These guys after three games out to know each other by now. Sometimes the third game is a dud. Either team could blow out the other.

But I think a lot of hair loss is involved in this game. Viral videos of these teams tearing their hair out is a good bet.

But you get two weeks off until the Super Bowl. Time enough to order some minoxidil. 

Triple OT. 

Tress Way returns an Eagle muff for the winning TD. 

Washington 43, Philly 37.

 

The Professor: Take Washington and the Over

In this upcoming semifinal round of the NFC Playoffs, the Betting Public is investing in the Washington Commanders and Houston Texans, thinking the huge point spreads can be covered by the veritable new kids on the block going up against the Super Bowl Favorites. 

Meaning, the anti-public choices are the Super Bowl Favorites with Sharps looking to clear out the suckers by big point spreads they figure the Bullies will more than cover in eye-catching blowouts of unprecedented proportions.

Ergo, the Public is going to Washington at 59% and Houston at 56%. Washington is +9.5 according to Wunderdog, while the Texans are +9.

Over under for the Skins Game is 55 points. Detroit scores 33.2 ppg while Washington gives up 23. Washington scores 28.5. Detroit coughs up 20.1. That averages out to Detroit 28.1, Washington 24.3. With the Lions getting the home field field goal, that's 31.1 to 24.3. That's a 6.8 point margin justifying playing the Commanders on a +9.5 point spread.

The Lions are 4-1 versus Washington the last five games. It didn't use to be that way. Washington leads the all-time series 31-16. 

Washington Assistant Anthony Lynn was an Offensive Coordinator with Dan Campbell before the advent of Ben Johnson. In 2022, Dan Quinn's Dallas defense held the Lions to 6 points. The Lions did better in 2023 losing to Quinn and the Cowboys 19-20. 

In that 2022 game, Detroit coughed up the football 5 times. Two picks and three fumbles lost. In 2023, the Lions took better care of the ball but still threw two picks. 

So Dan Quinn's Defense has gotten 7 turnovers against the Ben Johnson-Jared Goff Offensive Regime in Detroit.

Lions fans probably think it will take 7 turnovers for Washington to win. Maybe Dominique Hampton will be our Lorenzo Charles. 

This Washington Squad has the energy of that N.C. State surprise champion in 1983. The Commanders feel like a college basketball team having a magical run. 

The Wolfpack won the NCAA Championship against Hakeem Olajuwon and Phi Slama Jamma on a Lorenzo Charles jam with the great Jimmy Valvano running around trying to give a free hug out.

The NFL hasn't generated that kind of magic. Not at the College Ball level. But need I remind you, Washington has Magic Johnson. Washington has Jayden Daniels. Washington plays "Basketball on Grass".

As a nonnumeric stat, that Wolfpack year was also the year Washington won its first Super Bowl.

So I can see Detroit winning 31-24. Same old boring same old. No magic.

But I think I'll take the route of Homerism and take Washington and the Over.

Washington 54, Detroit 52.

The Professor: The Joker is Wild

Commanders going down to Dallas this weekend. They clinched a playoff spot. With a win they could lock up the 6th seed.

Washington is a 4 point favorite. The over/under is 44. The Over is 11-5 in both Cowboy and Commanders games this year. Dallas is 4-1 the last five games against the Commanders including a 34-26 victory in D.C. earlier this year. Cowboys are 2-6 at home and have closed their away season at 5-3. Dallas likes going on tour.

According to si.com, the Skins are 10-5-1 against the spread this year. Dallas is 6-10.

Washington closes its season at home with a 7-2 winning record and can clinch a winning road record with a dub at Jerry World.

Washington scores 28.9 points a game. They surrender 23.3. Dallas scores 20.7 a game. They give up 27.8. That averages to Washington 28.4, Dallas 22. Ceding the traditional field goal to the home team, you get either Commanders 28.4, Dallas 25 or Commanders 25.4, Dallas 22. Both scores are over 44. In both outcomes, Dallas covers.

Washington runs for 156 a game. Cowboys cough up 138 a game. Washington throws for 219 a game. Dallas allows 227 a game. 

Dallas runs for 97 a game. Washington gives up 136 a contest. Dallas passes for 222 yards a game. Washington gives up 187 a matchup.

Dallas ran for 91 and passed for 247 in the first game. Washington ran for 145 and passed for 275. Dallas won time of possession and the turnover battle. KaVontae Turpin had 4 kick returns for 179 yards with one spanning 99 yards for the touch. 

There are confounding variables of a non-numerical nature. Motivation for the Dallas-Washington finale is once again ambiguous. If you remember, the Cowboys a few years ago had also clinched the playoffs. Their only motivation was to add a little window dressing to their status with a longshot acquisition of a higher seed. In their confusion, they lost 26-6.

Washington is in a similar no man's land. 

The Dallas Fan Base would love to see a fifty burger hung up on Dan Quinn as many of them see Quinn as the reason Dallas did not go to the Super Bowl last year. Ironically, the man Dallas Fans most want out of Dallas is Jerry Jones, who no doubt sees dollar signs in one Jayden Daniels and would enjoy displaying said Daniels's Pelt on his wall to galvanize investment in the Cowboys. 

The Joker is wild. And Jones is the Joker in this poker game. He will find a way to get in on any deal he thinks will make him some money and beating Jayden would do that. He's done it once and wants to do it again. And he does it in grand style. In a supersized way. For Jerry, a thorough whupping of the wannabe Commanders would be a delicious sugar substitute for the Lombardi Trophy.

Because of Quinn's involvement, Dallas Fans find themselves in rare agreement with the Ring Master.

They both would enjoy the hell out of making Quinn and the Commanders out to be frauds.

With the Eagles digging deep the coffin on the Commanders the following week in a Winter is Coming concrete galoshes type game.

But I'll go Commanders 25, Dallas 22. They win. Dallas covers.

Jayden and Magic get a homecoming game in LA. 

Which also makes Jerry and Roger Goodell money.

The Professor: Washington Wins Atlanta Covers and Take the Over

The Washington Commanders are the Public's pick to win Sunday Night Football at a rate of 76% making the Atlanta Football Falcons the anti-Public choice to beat the Commanders and thrust Washington into a precarious playoff position.

Washington is a 4 point favorite at Home versus Atlanta according to Wunderdog. Meaning the game is a virtual draw at a neutral site. The Over Under is 47.5.

The Skins are 3-2 in the last five games versus Atlanta including last year's 24-16 Commander victory. Drake London caught 9 passes in that game. Darnell Mooney is also a worry.

Bijan Robinson is just under 1200 yards for the year and will certainly challenge the Commanders run defense.

Falcons Coach Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn in Atlanta in 2020 when Quinn was fired after 5 games. Coach Ra was Quinn's Defensive Coordinator. He also coached the secondary for the Washington Redskins 2012 Squad featuring Robert Griffin III. 

He was Defensive Coordinator for the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams, a team that featured three ex-Redskin Assistants as Head Coach and Offensive and Defensive Coordinators.

Kliff Kingsbury's Arizona Cardinals were 1-1 versus Morris' Super Bowl Rams Squad. They also split with the Rams the following season, Kingsbury's last in Arizona.

The Falcons score 21.8 points a game. They give up 23.3 points a game. The Skins give up 23.2 points and score 28.8. The Falcons offense is 6th in passing, 12th in rushing. Their defense is 21st against the pass and 12th against the run. 

The Commanders are 3rd in rushing and 16th in passing. They are 29th against the run and 4th against the pass on defense. 

Bullwark Robinson has seven games with a rushing touchdown. Interestingly, the Falcons are 2-5 when Robinson scores one or more touchdowns. He is also a threat in the pass game having caught 56 balls.

The Falcons are getting 4 which is enough for them to cover in a game which averages out to Washington 26.05, Atlanta 22.5. The average is already over the Over. 

Mitigating circumstances are: High degree of familiarity with sources and methods between coaching staffs. This familiarity helps the young Falcon QB as well as productive receivers and a good running game. 

But familiarity versus unpredictability is also in play as the young Washington squad has had spikes in improvement in key football games resulting in surprisingly positive performances in areas perceived to be weaknesses.

I'm afraid the math and the Public necessitate a Falcons pick to cover. However, I'm picking the Commanders to win in a game too close for cardiac patients to bear. 

Take the over.

Commanders 26, Falcons 25.9

The Professor: Spencer Rattlers Some Cages

The Washington Commanders are newly minted 7 point favorites at New Orleans this Sunday. That is up from 3.5.

The Over Under is 43.

The Public is on the Commanders at 60%. Not the biggest number of the week. That belongs to Arizona at 77%.

New Orleans is 3-0 versus Washington since 2017. 

New Orleans is probably without Derek Carr and Taysom Hill. Rookie Spencer Rattler is probably the starter for this matchup in the Big Easy. He\s played against the Chargers, Denver and Tampa.

He's been sacked 14 times in three appearances.

Interim Coach Darren Rizzi is 3-1. 

According to Odds Shark, the Saints are 2-7 against the spread the last 9 games. Commanders are 8-3-1 against the spread their last 12. The Over in Commander Road Games is 6-1 over the last seven.

The Saints are able in an area of weakness for the Commanders. They are 10th in rushing and 7th in rushing touchdowns. Klint Kubiak's Saints Offense posted two 40 burgers in their 2-0 start. Their top back is Alvin Kamara. His top game he popped for 155 against the Panthers in a one-point loss.

The average of the scoring averages is Washington 25.7, New Orleans 22.6. That supports the Over.

I'm thinking Kubiak and Kamara will post good efforts. I think Rattler will play well. The Saints will beat the spread but not the Commanders.

Commanders 26, Saints 25.

The Professor: Take the Over and the Titans to Cover

This week the Washington Commanders face the Tennessee Football Titans.

The Titans are averaging 18.4 points per game on Offense. On Defense, they give up 26.4 points a game.

The Commanders are averaging 27.8 points a game. They give up 23.1 points a game. 

The Titans are the Number One Defense against the pass at 169 yards a game. They are 8th against the run. On Offense, they are 30th in passing and 12th in rushing. The question with regard to their 3-8 record is how come they have not won more with that defense.

The answer is turnovers. The yards per game against the defense is impacted by the short fields the Titans have gifted their opponents. The anointed Super Champion Detroit Lions routed the Titans 52-14 but started five drives at or inside the Titan 30 yard line. All five drives ended in TDs. The Lions had all of 225 yards total offense only 61 through the air. The Titans are 3-7 when they cough up the ball one or more times. The one game they went without a turnover they lost but they beat the Texans after committing 3. They rank next to last in Turnover Differential.

The Titans hold a 3-2 record against Washington the last five matchups. Average score 21-19 Tennessee. The average score including 2024 points is 24-21 Washington. Suggesting 27-21 Washington with the 3-point home field bonus. Yet the field goal kicking of late has been volatile for the Commanders due to injury.

Titans are 2-4 on the road but won last week at Houston. Washington is 4-2 at home.

For Anti-Public aficionados, the Public Consensus is Washington at 68%. The Over Under is 44.5. Washington is favored by 5.5.

I guess it comes down to the Washington kicking game. All we have is the Dallas game for recent behavior.

Ergo, the Titans cover. Take the over. Washington wins 24-21.

The Professor: Dallas Covers Washington Wins

This week the Washington Commanders face the Dallas Cowboys. 

Dallas has been struggling of late. Washington fans worry their prize QB Jayden Daniels is injured. This explains, they feel, his recent decline. Injury can account for a decrease in efficacy. So can the Rookie Wall. In combination, well, one can understand how that might impact even dynamic individuals.

Some people feel a bullpen approach is needed. You have an Ace and two Relievers. With recent deformations of the NFL Calendar such as European and Japanese Games, 17 plus game seasons, the disfigured Thursday Night Football mutation, the ability to go to a reliever would certainly allow your Ace to be fresh in the event of playoffs. 

When your Ace is a rookie the issue of exhaustion and burnout is magnified.

The Cowboys are 78-46-2 versus the Washington Football Franchise. The last five games between Dallas and Washington average out to Dallas 34, Washington 14. 

The Cowboys score 18.7 ppg. They give up 29.3. Washington scores 28 a game and gives up 22.1. If you take the last five games into account, Dallas wins 25 to 24 without the traditional field goal awarded to the home team. That would make it Washington 27 Dallas 25. Based on the ten games played so far, Washington wins 29-20, 32-20 with the three point home field. Washington is 4-1 at home. Dallas is 3-2 away and 0-5 at home which suggests the Cowboys can't wait to get away from the wife and play better on the road.

For Anti-Public theorists, the Public according to Wunderdog is coming down 74% in favor of Washington. The Cowboys are getting 10 points. They are 2-8 against the spread. 

Cooper Rush is 3-1 in games played versus Washington. 

For Coaching Chess Enthusiasts, Kliff Kingsbury's Cardinals faced off against Mike Zimmer's Vikings in 2021, winning 34-33. Kliff called 21 runs and 36 passes. Dallas is 19th against the pass, 31st against the run. One yard ahead in run defense is Washington ranked 30th. But Dallas is 31st on Offense running the football.

The Over Under is 45. 

Here's a few maxims: It is easier to BEGIN running the football than it is to BEGIN stopping the run. Both teams will be effective in the run game unless the mercurial Washington Defense comes up with one of their surprise gems. The Ex-Cowboys on Defense will be psyched.

Questions to be answered: Can the Dallas Defense do anything with the intel on Washington from the Ravens, Steelers, and Eagles games? Is Jayden Daniels officially beleaguered? Or will the magic return?

Were it a nondivision opponent with these numbers I'd pick the Commanders to cover and win in a shutout. But the Cowboys know Dan Quinn. Mike Zimmer takes notes. 

To quote Phil Collins, he was there and he saw what you did. Saw the Eagles and the Ravens and the Steelers with his own two eyes. He thinks you've all been a pack of lies.

I think it is going to be closer than ten points. I hope not. I'd prefer 24-0 Washington. But the Math doesn't say that.

Take the over. Dallas Covers. Washington wins 29-27 as Frankie Luvu picks off Cooper Rush in the end zone as Dallas is going in for the winning touchdown. 

The Crowd goes wild.

 

The Professor: Philly Wins in OT Washington Covers Take the Over

This week the Commanders take the field against the Philadelphia Eagles tomorrow night at 8:15.

Here's Pro Football Reference\s Game Preview.

Eagles have a 3-1 home record. Washington posts a 3-2 road record. The much ballyhooed extravaganza is at Lincoln Financial Field.

The Commanders cough up 21.7 ppg which is still 12th despite the bloat. Philly relinquishes 17.9 ppg, Number Five League Wide. Commanders Defense is 28th versus the run surrending 142 a contest. Philly is Fifth in the League allowing an even One Hundred a matchup. 

Both defenses are in the Top Five in the League against the pass. Washington is No. 5. Philly is No. 3.

Washington scores 29 a game on Offense while Philly scores 25.9, third and seventh in the League respectively.

Washington is 7-3 against the Spread. Philadelphia is 5-4.  

Philadelphia is a 3.5 point favorite at Home. Yet, the Public, per Wunderdog, is slightly favoring the Commanders at 51%. The over under is 48.5. Wunderdog's computer picks Philadelphia, with the Birds winning 27.1 to 21.9. The Eagles have a 67% chance to win.

The average score of the last five games is Philly 27.4, Washington 23.6, favoring Philly to cover and favoring the over. The result of averaging the average points scored and allowed features Philly 23.8, Washington 23.4. Adding a Philly home field field goal, you nearly get the spread at 3.4 points. But definitely an OT possibility.

In 2021, Dan Quinn's first as Cowboy Defensive Coordinator and Nick Sirianni's first as Eagle Head Coach, the Cowboys swept the Eagles 41-21 and 51-26. Eagles ran for just 64 yards the first game but 149 in the second game.

In 2022, the Eagles split with the Cowboys, winning the first game 26-17 while rushing for 136. The Birds lost the second game 40-34 with the Cowboys doing better against the run holding Philly to 87 yards.

In 2023 came another split with the Cowboys. The Birds won the first game 28-23, netting 109 yards on the ground. Dallas pounded Philly 33-13 in the rematch while holding the Eagles to 106 yards on the ground.

Commanders assistant Brian Johnson was the Eagle Offensive Coordinator for the 2023 squad. The Eagles replaced both coordinators from 2023. The new OC is Kellen Moore who served the same capacity with the Cowboys in 2021 and 22 when Dan Quinn was Cowboy Defensive Guru. 

The New Defensive Coordinator needs no introduction.

Kliff Kingsbury's Arizona Cardinals lost to Sirianni's Eagles 17-20 in 2022. The Cardinals ran 26 times and threw 42 times. They had 23 first downs and converted 8 of 14 third downs.

The last four games the Eagles are averaging 213.5 yards rushing. The Commanders are averaging giving up 150.2 yards a contest. So Eagles fans expect 182 on the ground for the contest. 

Washington fans are concerned about the Eagle passing game. However, the Birds won one game this year with only 70 yards passing, netting 269 yards on the ground against the New York Football Giants.

The Eagles rollicking running game and home field advantage seems to foretell of an Eagle Victory. Need I remind you of the staffs' familiarity with each other. Speed on Washington's defense should be accelerated as a result of the inside info. There could be long successful Philly drives that suddenly stall out. 

Meaning this is an overtime game. Philadelphia wins 26.8 to 23.4 in OT. Washington covers by an eyelash. Take the over.

The Professor: Take the Over and the Steelers to Cover

One interesting thing about the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers is only three times in eight games have they surrendered 100 or more yards rushing. 

The Steelers are 1-2 in those three games. 

The Steelers average 23.4 points a game. They give up 14.9. Their QBs have thrown just one pick all year while the defense has 15 takeaways. Pittsburgh is 26th in passing, 8th in rushing. The Commanders are 29th against the run, 5th against the pass.

Most people I think would consider the 5th place ranking against the Pass for Washington to be a bit of a mirage. Though people appear enthused about the addition of Marshon Lattimore and expect him to improve the Commander secondary.

The Commanders average 29.2 points a game. They give up 21. The Commanders are 11th in passing, 3rd in rushing. The Steelers are 21st against the pass and 4th against the run.

The average of the points per game = Pittsburgh 22.2, Washington 22.05.

The only two times the Steelers have lost they gave up over a 100 yards rushing. However, there also seems to be a stalemate for the Commanders ranking wise in the running game versus the Steelers. The rankings seem to suggest the Commanders be well advised to pass.

Can you run on a stout run defense? The answer was no against the Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers' mortal enemy. Is the answer for the Commanders still no?

The last Washington Football Coach to extinguish the Steelers was the much maligned Ron Rivera whose  2020 squad upset an undefeated Steelers unit lead by NFL Icon Ben Roethlisberger. 

Previously, Dan Quinn's 2018 Atlanta Falcons fell to Mike Tomlin's Steelers 17-41. Steelers ran for 131 yards.

Versus Russell Wilson in 2016, Dan Quinn's Falcons fell 24-26 to the Seahawks, where Russ tossed for 270 yards and 0 TDs while netting 7 yards on 6 carries. Wilson's Seahawks were 5-14 on Third Downs in that game.

They met again in the playoffs. This time Russ ran for 49 yards on 6 runs while tossing for 225 yards. He threw two picks and two touchdowns in a 20-36 loss to the Falcons. The Hawks were 5-11 on Third Downs.

In 2017, the Falcons beat Russ 34-31. Wilson ran for 86 yards. Russ beat the Falcons 27-20 in 2019. 

In 2020, Russ posted his best game against Dan Quinn's defense. going 31-35 and 322 yards with 4 TDs. The Hawks defeated Dan Quinn in the first of his last five games as Falcons Head Coach. Seahawks 38, Falcons 25. 

Quinn is 2-4 versus Russell Wilson with the average being Russ 30.5, DQ 26. Russ is a 4.5 point favorite over DQ.

Kliff Kingsbury's 2019 Cardinals squad were eclipsed by the Steel Curtain 17-23. Steelers busted for 140 yards while Kliff's running game was limited to 71 yards.

The Commanders are 2.5 point favorites. The over under is 45.5. The Game will go over if DQ and Russ hit their average.

Points per game plus Russ versus DQ = 26-24 Steelers.

However, the three points traditionally ceded to the Home Team gives a 27-26 home win to the Commanders. Wink wink officiating.

So I'm taking the over with the Steelers to cover and the Commanders to win.

The Professor: Commanders and the Over

The Monsters of the Midway are 2.5 point favorites to vanquish the Washington Commanders this weekend in a matchup with playoff tie-breaker implications.

The Public is siding with Washington at a 58% clip. The over under according to USA Today is 43. 

The last time Dan Quinn faced Matt Eberflus was in 2022 as Defensive Coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys. The Bears ran for 240 yards but lost to Dallas 49-29. Bears dominated time of possession, 36:04 to 23:56.

Last year under Eberflus, the Bears ran for 178 against Washington in a 40-20 pasting.

Former Redskins Offensive Quality Control guy Shane Waldron is the Offensive Coordinator for Eberflus. Waldron worked for Sean McVay in LA before becoming Seattle Seahawk OC in 2021 for Pete Carroll. 

Bears Defensive Coordinator Eric Washington worked for Ron Rivera in Carolina. He and Montez Sweat may be particularly excited about the possibility of manhandling the Commanders. Washington was Assistant Head Coach last year for a Buffalo Squad that annihilated his former boss 37-3 last year in Washington. The Bills ran for 168 yards in that game.

Ron Rivera is a frequent whipping boy for the Washington Media. Bears social media have been advocating busting Jayden Daniels up, knocking him out of the game. To hear Washington Media tell it, Jayden Daniels is all Washington has. A lot of disrespect for Marcus Mariota exists in D.C.'s starstruck, bandwagonish media.

The refrain has been "I don't want to see Marcus Mariota again."

Some of the same media people who were big advocates of the Mike Shanahan zone read usage of Robert Griffin are extolling the virtues of continuing to call designed runs for Jayden Daniels. Having witnessed Daniels curl himself up into a fetal trash compactor shape, I begin to get PTSD about the thought of him doing design runs.

I am not convinced he falls right. The same way I wasn't convinced RGIII was falling right.

Daniels is best running on called pass plays. Where running is a nested audible to pass plays. Called runs seems to invite him to become a contortionist at the end of the play. RGIII used to do the same thing. He used to go splat like a cartoon when he fell. 

A Quarterback who habitually throws himself into the trash compactor is just not going to survive your designed runs. So you'd better get used to seeing Marcus Mariota. The guy you don't want to see again.

The Media deserves to lose this ball game 73-0. The Bears Media 73, D.C. Media 0. The D.C. Media get knocked out in the second half with busted ribs.

But there is more to the team than Jayden Daniels.  

Both teams are going to try to run the ball. Both teams are good against the point spread. 

Not a game for people with COPD.

I like the over and I like the Commanders to win 27-24. Mariota conducts the game winning drive.

The Professor: Commanders Over Panthers and Panthers Cover

This week's game against the Carolina Football Panthers sees the Washington Commanders 7.5 point favorites in a matchup between Coaches who are very familiar with each other.

Dan Quinn is 8-3 all time against the Carolina Franchise. Kliff Kingsbury is 1-3 versus Carolina. Quinn coached with Dave Canales in the Pete Carroll Coaching tree. Canales did pretty much everything except waterboy on offense for Seattle.

Tangentially, Kliff was 3-5 versus the Seattle Seahawks as Head Coach in Arizona.

The Over/Under according to Wunderdog is 51.5 with the Public going 75% in favor of Washington. The Sharps apparently are on the Commanders as well.

The Running Game will be key for both teams. Both teams will have to run the ball and stop the run. Neither team is great in run defense.

I basically go on the chess match history between Coaches and Schemes. I think familiarity tends to make things either very close or an out-and-out blowout.

I'm guessing close is more likely giving the volatility of the young but developing Washington Commander defense  and the presence of Savvy Panther Veteran QB Andy Dalton.

I'll go with the under. Washington wins 27-24.

Carolina covers. Daniels conducts a game winning drive.

The Professor: Ravens Win and Cover Versus Washington

Let's peep at a tad bit of research on this weekend's match up between our beloved and red hot Washington Commanders and the AFC Powerhouse Baltimore Ravens.

In 2018, the Baltimore Ravens defeated Dan Quinn's Atlanta Falcons 26-16. The Ravens ran for over 200 yards with perennial League MVP Candidate Lamar Jackson running for 75 yards and a TD.

On September 15, 2019, Kliff Kingsbury's Arizona Cardinals lost to the Baltimore Ravens 23-17. The Cardinals ran 10 times for 20 yards and passed 40 times for 349 yards.

In 2020, the Ravens defeated the Washington Football Team, 31-17, a win that included a 50-yd TD by said MVP Candidate Jackson. Terry McLaurin caught 10 passes for 118 yards that day.

The Ravens lead the All-Time series 4-3. 

The Ravens are 6.5 point favorites versus our Washington Commanders this weekend.

Wunderdog has the Public favoring Washington to cover at 62 to 38 %. The over under is 52.5 with 65% taking the over. Their computer picks cites the Ravens with the best chance to win at 67%. 

The Sharps have heavy investment in the Ravens.

I can see taking Washington to cover. But I think the Ravens will win and cover by a slight margin. The Over seems a safe bet as well with both teams trending well in the category.

Ravens continue to dominate market share in the region.

Ravens win 37-30.

 

The Professor: Browns to Cover and Washington to Win

The Washington Commanders are coming off their most complete win of the year. All three phases of the game made contributions.

Looking at some numbers:

Dan Quinn is 0-1 against the Cleveland Browns losing to Coach Gregg Williams' Dog Pound in 2018, 28-16. Back in the Baker Day. 

Kliff Kingsbury faced Kevin Stefanski's Browns in his 2021 Playoff Year as Arizona Cardinals Head Coach. The Birds ran for 144. Passed for 229. Kliff called 37 runs. 30 passes. Cards won 37-14.

Kevin Stefanski is 2-0 against Washington. Deshaun Watson threw 3 TDs against Washington New Year's Day, 2023, Browns winning 24-10.

According to Wunderdog, the Public heavily favors Washington. According to Copilot, Sharp Money is on the Browns.

Washington is favored by 3.5. The Over Under is 44.

The Browns lead series, 35-12-1 and have won the last two matchups.

I'll take the Over. I'll take the Browns to cover and Washington to win. 

Washington 31, Browns 30