The Professor: Take the Over and the Steelers to Cover

One interesting thing about the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers is only three times in eight games have they surrendered 100 or more yards rushing. 

The Steelers are 1-2 in those three games. 

The Steelers average 23.4 points a game. They give up 14.9. Their QBs have thrown just one pick all year while the defense has 15 takeaways. Pittsburgh is 26th in passing, 8th in rushing. The Commanders are 29th against the run, 5th against the pass.

Most people I think would consider the 5th place ranking against the Pass for Washington to be a bit of a mirage. Though people appear enthused about the addition of Marshon Lattimore and expect him to improve the Commander secondary.

The Commanders average 29.2 points a game. They give up 21. The Commanders are 11th in passing, 3rd in rushing. The Steelers are 21st against the pass and 4th against the run.

The average of the points per game = Pittsburgh 22.2, Washington 22.05.

The only two times the Steelers have lost they gave up over a 100 yards rushing. However, there also seems to be a stalemate for the Commanders ranking wise in the running game versus the Steelers. The rankings seem to suggest the Commanders be well advised to pass.

Can you run on a stout run defense? The answer was no against the Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers' mortal enemy. Is the answer for the Commanders still no?

The last Washington Football Coach to extinguish the Steelers was the much maligned Ron Rivera whose  2020 squad upset an undefeated Steelers unit lead by NFL Icon Ben Roethlisberger. 

Previously, Dan Quinn's 2018 Atlanta Falcons fell to Mike Tomlin's Steelers 17-41. Steelers ran for 131 yards.

Versus Russell Wilson in 2016, Dan Quinn's Falcons fell 24-26 to the Seahawks, where Russ tossed for 270 yards and 0 TDs while netting 7 yards on 6 carries. Wilson's Seahawks were 5-14 on Third Downs in that game.

They met again in the playoffs. This time Russ ran for 49 yards on 6 runs while tossing for 225 yards. He threw two picks and two touchdowns in a 20-36 loss to the Falcons. The Hawks were 5-11 on Third Downs.

In 2017, the Falcons beat Russ 34-31. Wilson ran for 86 yards. Russ beat the Falcons 27-20 in 2019. 

In 2020, Russ posted his best game against Dan Quinn's defense. going 31-35 and 322 yards with 4 TDs. The Hawks defeated Dan Quinn in the first of his last five games as Falcons Head Coach. Seahawks 38, Falcons 25. 

Quinn is 2-4 versus Russell Wilson with the average being Russ 30.5, DQ 26. Russ is a 4.5 point favorite over DQ.

Kliff Kingsbury's 2019 Cardinals squad were eclipsed by the Steel Curtain 17-23. Steelers busted for 140 yards while Kliff's running game was limited to 71 yards.

The Commanders are 2.5 point favorites. The over under is 45.5. The Game will go over if DQ and Russ hit their average.

Points per game plus Russ versus DQ = 26-24 Steelers.

However, the three points traditionally ceded to the Home Team gives a 27-26 home win to the Commanders. Wink wink officiating.

So I'm taking the over with the Steelers to cover and the Commanders to win.