The Professor: Commanders and the Over

The Monsters of the Midway are 2.5 point favorites to vanquish the Washington Commanders this weekend in a matchup with playoff tie-breaker implications.

The Public is siding with Washington at a 58% clip. The over under according to USA Today is 43. 

The last time Dan Quinn faced Matt Eberflus was in 2022 as Defensive Coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys. The Bears ran for 240 yards but lost to Dallas 49-29. Bears dominated time of possession, 36:04 to 23:56.

Last year under Eberflus, the Bears ran for 178 against Washington in a 40-20 pasting.

Former Redskins Offensive Quality Control guy Shane Waldron is the Offensive Coordinator for Eberflus. Waldron worked for Sean McVay in LA before becoming Seattle Seahawk OC in 2021 for Pete Carroll. 

Bears Defensive Coordinator Eric Washington worked for Ron Rivera in Carolina. He and Montez Sweat may be particularly excited about the possibility of manhandling the Commanders. Washington was Assistant Head Coach last year for a Buffalo Squad that annihilated his former boss 37-3 last year in Washington. The Bills ran for 168 yards in that game.

Ron Rivera is a frequent whipping boy for the Washington Media. Bears social media have been advocating busting Jayden Daniels up, knocking him out of the game. To hear Washington Media tell it, Jayden Daniels is all Washington has. A lot of disrespect for Marcus Mariota exists in D.C.'s starstruck, bandwagonish media.

The refrain has been "I don't want to see Marcus Mariota again."

Some of the same media people who were big advocates of the Mike Shanahan zone read usage of Robert Griffin are extolling the virtues of continuing to call designed runs for Jayden Daniels. Having witnessed Daniels curl himself up into a fetal trash compactor shape, I begin to get PTSD about the thought of him doing design runs.

I am not convinced he falls right. The same way I wasn't convinced RGIII was falling right.

Daniels is best running on called pass plays. Where running is a nested audible to pass plays. Called runs seems to invite him to become a contortionist at the end of the play. RGIII used to do the same thing. He used to go splat like a cartoon when he fell. 

A Quarterback who habitually throws himself into the trash compactor is just not going to survive your designed runs. So you'd better get used to seeing Marcus Mariota. The guy you don't want to see again.

The Media deserves to lose this ball game 73-0. The Bears Media 73, D.C. Media 0. The D.C. Media get knocked out in the second half with busted ribs.

But there is more to the team than Jayden Daniels.  

Both teams are going to try to run the ball. Both teams are good against the point spread. 

Not a game for people with COPD.

I like the over and I like the Commanders to win 27-24. Mariota conducts the game winning drive.