The Professor: Dallas Covers Washington Wins

This week the Washington Commanders face the Dallas Cowboys. 

Dallas has been struggling of late. Washington fans worry their prize QB Jayden Daniels is injured. This explains, they feel, his recent decline. Injury can account for a decrease in efficacy. So can the Rookie Wall. In combination, well, one can understand how that might impact even dynamic individuals.

Some people feel a bullpen approach is needed. You have an Ace and two Relievers. With recent deformations of the NFL Calendar such as European and Japanese Games, 17 plus game seasons, the disfigured Thursday Night Football mutation, the ability to go to a reliever would certainly allow your Ace to be fresh in the event of playoffs. 

When your Ace is a rookie the issue of exhaustion and burnout is magnified.

The Cowboys are 78-46-2 versus the Washington Football Franchise. The last five games between Dallas and Washington average out to Dallas 34, Washington 14. 

The Cowboys score 18.7 ppg. They give up 29.3. Washington scores 28 a game and gives up 22.1. If you take the last five games into account, Dallas wins 25 to 24 without the traditional field goal awarded to the home team. That would make it Washington 27 Dallas 25. Based on the ten games played so far, Washington wins 29-20, 32-20 with the three point home field. Washington is 4-1 at home. Dallas is 3-2 away and 0-5 at home which suggests the Cowboys can't wait to get away from the wife and play better on the road.

For Anti-Public theorists, the Public according to Wunderdog is coming down 74% in favor of Washington. The Cowboys are getting 10 points. They are 2-8 against the spread. 

Cooper Rush is 3-1 in games played versus Washington. 

For Coaching Chess Enthusiasts, Kliff Kingsbury's Cardinals faced off against Mike Zimmer's Vikings in 2021, winning 34-33. Kliff called 21 runs and 36 passes. Dallas is 19th against the pass, 31st against the run. One yard ahead in run defense is Washington ranked 30th. But Dallas is 31st on Offense running the football.

The Over Under is 45. 

Here's a few maxims: It is easier to BEGIN running the football than it is to BEGIN stopping the run. Both teams will be effective in the run game unless the mercurial Washington Defense comes up with one of their surprise gems. The Ex-Cowboys on Defense will be psyched.

Questions to be answered: Can the Dallas Defense do anything with the intel on Washington from the Ravens, Steelers, and Eagles games? Is Jayden Daniels officially beleaguered? Or will the magic return?

Were it a nondivision opponent with these numbers I'd pick the Commanders to cover and win in a shutout. But the Cowboys know Dan Quinn. Mike Zimmer takes notes. 

To quote Phil Collins, he was there and he saw what you did. Saw the Eagles and the Ravens and the Steelers with his own two eyes. He thinks you've all been a pack of lies.

I think it is going to be closer than ten points. I hope not. I'd prefer 24-0 Washington. But the Math doesn't say that.

Take the over. Dallas Covers. Washington wins 29-27 as Frankie Luvu picks off Cooper Rush in the end zone as Dallas is going in for the winning touchdown. 

The Crowd goes wild.