Bad Weekend to Bet NFL Football

These conference championship matchups are great from a competitive standpoint but if you like "investing" in NFL "outcomes", this is about as sucky as it gets.

The two home teams, Kansas City and Philadelphia, have stadiums that rock. The noise at Arrowhead is DEAFENING. 

Cincinnati has the whammy lately on Kansas City. Philadelphia is vulnerable against the run and the 49ers are run-first. 

There are gut-churning dilemmas everywhere in these games. If I had to give "investment" advice, I'd suggest doing sidebets and leave off who wins or over-unders. Who scores first is a safer bet.

I think the home teams will score first. That is my prediction. Baseline.

As to who wins, I have no earthly. I will pick anyway because that seems to be the thing to do. But stay away from using my picks if you value your profit margins.

I am uneasy with picking the Eagles. I think nine times out of ten this 49er team, as it matches up great against Philadelphia, would beat the Eagles in any stadium. They could dominate time of possession with their running game. The Eagles are going to have to get on top quick and force the Rookie Quarterback to beat them in the passing game. 

It is not a matter of choice. The Eagles HAVE to stop the run. Period. Force some fumbles. Recover them. Score.

There is an aside here. From one who has been through the Shanahan era in Washington. Mike Shanahan was often slaughtered by the Birds. They would zoom in front by two to three touchdowns and cruise to victory.  Mike did not have Kyle's defense, however.

I like Arrowhead Stadium. If the Stadium won games, I'd pick the Chiefs. But Mahomes' injury is a weird situation. This year, teams seem to be maintaining their mastery in win streaks. See Giants-Eagles. 

Cincinnati over Kansas City 54-40.

Though I think the Eagles have a better chance at winning the Super Bowl than beating San Francisco, I have a better chance of landing on the moon than picking right when I pick against the Eagles.

Philadelphia over San Francisco, let's say 59-28.

Get in front. Stay in front. The heart never bursts when it is big.

What happened at the 1973 Belmont Stakes?