Offseason Excitement Begins

It was a great year for the Washington Commanders.

Jayden Daniels turned out to be phenomenal. You worry about him being Archie Manning, Sonny Jurgensen, or John Elway. With the team thinking a great QB is all they need. I don't think the football operations people feel that way in D.C.

There are some in the media who absolutely feel that way. There are great Quarterbacks who didn't win championships because management placed everything on their shoulders. 

Maybe the best thing Jayden accomplished was integrating new people in the offense as they came in. And realizing who was next man up. Getting the next men up involved.

That may help take the pressure off Adam Peters in the player acquisition department. At least on offense. 

They have work to do on defense. I'm not convinced you can stop the run with two linebackers. No matter how great those two are. My bias is three or four. If you run big nickel. It should be three d-linemen and three linebackers. I thought they had enough to win with and they did win but they never improved against the run. It was a season-long struggle. If the scheme wasn't part of the problem, there would have been noticeable improvement by the playoffs.

But Peters and Quinn know what they need. And if they have a scheme in mind on defense they will have to populate that scheme with people, mentally and physically, who can execute it. 

The other thing is, a defining quality of this Commanders Defense was the effort was off the charts. I can't help but think oftentimes they ran out of gas. To some extent, playing up tempo will gas your own defense. It makes the fourth quarter hard. Unless you have excellent second teamers you'll never be out of danger. Gunning the engine did not help this defense.

They played ball control at times. And the effects of up tempo were often offset by the NFL's best two-minute offense. Regardless, the defense couldn't put their capes on for four quarters. That's depth. Scheme. And complementary football. That's all got to get better.

I'm personally going to look at good tacklers and corners good at man coverage with power on the interior offensive line, offensive tackles who have tight end speed, an edge, and maybe a receiver or running back. We'll see what's happening in mock drafts. Try to define who's who and see what magic Peters can make in free agency.

But hands down, this was an impressive first season from Josh Harris and his football guys.

The Professor: Washington Plus the Over

The Philadelphia Eagles are 6-point favorites heading into the NFC Championship Game at Lincoln Financial Field. 

Eagles score 27.2 points a game. They give up 17.8. Washington scores 28.5 a game and gives up 23 a game. The average score the last five games between Philly and D.C. is Philly 30.4, Washington 29.6. That exceeds the over-under which is set at 47.5.

Eagles are 3-2 over that span. Skins are 1-1 in Jayden Daniels games.

The Public favor the Commanders covering in the game at 63 percent. The Public likes the Bills to cover on a short number at +1.5. If both win, it will mean a rematch of Super Bowl XXVI.

The Birds of course could earn a return engagement with the Kansas City Chiefs. And/or play the Bills for the first time in a Lombardi Trophy situation. 

The Numbers say Philly 26.9, Washington 25.3. Meaning at least by the numbers Washington covers. 

Here's CBS Sports predicting the game. True Business Review. Drew and Stew.

The 2010 Green Bay Packers won three road games and then the Super Bowl. That's the only team that comes to mind in comparing the achievements of the Commanders to Historical Super Bowl teams. Aaron Rodgers was not a rookie. 

Washington going all the way would be historic. While a rookie QB has won the league championship, no rookie QB has ever won the Super Bowl.

Not many would have predicted a historic year for the Commanders this past fall.

So I think the Commanders cover for sure. I'm tempted to side with the counter-intuitives who see a defensive struggle. These guys after three games out to know each other by now. Sometimes the third game is a dud. Either team could blow out the other.

But I think a lot of hair loss is involved in this game. Viral videos of these teams tearing their hair out is a good bet.

But you get two weeks off until the Super Bowl. Time enough to order some minoxidil. 

Triple OT. 

Tress Way returns an Eagle muff for the winning TD. 

Washington 43, Philly 37.

 

The Professor: Take Washington and the Over

In this upcoming semifinal round of the NFC Playoffs, the Betting Public is investing in the Washington Commanders and Houston Texans, thinking the huge point spreads can be covered by the veritable new kids on the block going up against the Super Bowl Favorites. 

Meaning, the anti-public choices are the Super Bowl Favorites with Sharps looking to clear out the suckers by big point spreads they figure the Bullies will more than cover in eye-catching blowouts of unprecedented proportions.

Ergo, the Public is going to Washington at 59% and Houston at 56%. Washington is +9.5 according to Wunderdog, while the Texans are +9.

Over under for the Skins Game is 55 points. Detroit scores 33.2 ppg while Washington gives up 23. Washington scores 28.5. Detroit coughs up 20.1. That averages out to Detroit 28.1, Washington 24.3. With the Lions getting the home field field goal, that's 31.1 to 24.3. That's a 6.8 point margin justifying playing the Commanders on a +9.5 point spread.

The Lions are 4-1 versus Washington the last five games. It didn't use to be that way. Washington leads the all-time series 31-16. 

Washington Assistant Anthony Lynn was an Offensive Coordinator with Dan Campbell before the advent of Ben Johnson. In 2022, Dan Quinn's Dallas defense held the Lions to 6 points. The Lions did better in 2023 losing to Quinn and the Cowboys 19-20. 

In that 2022 game, Detroit coughed up the football 5 times. Two picks and three fumbles lost. In 2023, the Lions took better care of the ball but still threw two picks. 

So Dan Quinn's Defense has gotten 7 turnovers against the Ben Johnson-Jared Goff Offensive Regime in Detroit.

Lions fans probably think it will take 7 turnovers for Washington to win. Maybe Dominique Hampton will be our Lorenzo Charles. 

This Washington Squad has the energy of that N.C. State surprise champion in 1983. The Commanders feel like a college basketball team having a magical run. 

The Wolfpack won the NCAA Championship against Hakeem Olajuwon and Phi Slama Jamma on a Lorenzo Charles jam with the great Jimmy Valvano running around trying to give a free hug out.

The NFL hasn't generated that kind of magic. Not at the College Ball level. But need I remind you, Washington has Magic Johnson. Washington has Jayden Daniels. Washington plays "Basketball on Grass".

As a nonnumeric stat, that Wolfpack year was also the year Washington won its first Super Bowl.

So I can see Detroit winning 31-24. Same old boring same old. No magic.

But I think I'll take the route of Homerism and take Washington and the Over.

Washington 54, Detroit 52.

Some Game Film on the Lions

November 10th, the Houston Texans picked off Jared Goff five times. The Lions, like the Commanders, won the game despite the turnover margin. But Houston had a good defensive game.

The 49ers had over 400 yards passing and nearly 500 yards offense. You know Kingsbury will study this relatively recent game, December 30th, to see what Dan Quinn's former Offensive Coordinator cooked up for Big D.

After beating Washington in their opener, the Bucs beat the Lions in Week 2. The takeaway is that you can still beat Detroit even though they move the ball like a hot knife through butter.

The Bills and Lions scored 90 points in one game on December 15th with the Bills nabbing 197 yards rushing and 362 yards passing. Goff threw five TD passes in a losing effort. Some say the best shootout game of the year. 

The best defensive performances against the Lions were the back-to-back Titans and Packers games. They were the only two games the Lions were held to less than 300 yards offense. In the weird Titans game, despite the mediocre yardage day, the Lions scored 52 points. 

The Packers held the Lions to 261 total yards November 3rd. The Packers may have seen something in that Lions rout. Such as the Titans turned the ball over 4 times. 

How the Lions adjusted might be gleaned from their second Packers game.

The Professor: Washington's Chi Wins

So, by the numbers, this upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Washington Commanders has all the indications, American and European Models, of being a typical down-to-the-wire NFL Playoff match. That is OK this young Commander squad happens to specialize in down-to-the-wire.

But this one goes into Overtime. 

Well that's what the NFL wants. What the NFL wants, it usually gets. 

From the points-per-second research below, I get Tampa Bay 31.9, Washington 28.4; Tampa 28.3, Washington 27.3; and Tampa 27.1, Washington 26.5.

The Point Spread has held steady at Tampa minus 3. I think it's a Pick'em. Probably should be off the board. Earlier, the Public was on Washington. Now Wunderdog has Tampa the Public favorite at 52%. This is not a game to bet on in my humble opinion. 

Tampa is 2-3 against the Commanders the last five games. Tampa is 5-4 at home. Washington is 5-3 in away games. Washington averages 28.5 points a game while giving up 23.0 points a game. Tampa averages 29.5 while giving up 22.3. 

That works out to Tampa 26.3, Washington 25.4. Less than one point. Averaging this and the points-per-second analysis, you get Tampa 28, Washington 27.

Washington covers. Tampa Wins. 

However, atmospheric nonnumerics has some good Washington news. 

The Commanders are 3-0 in rematches. The Bucs are 2-1 in rematches. They won time of possession in all 3 games. The Commanders lost time of possession in all three rematches.

Although it would be good for Washington to win time of possession, they have a history of winning games while losing time of possession. 

And although it would be good for Washington to run the ball, Tampa Bay has not given up a hundred yards rushing since the Kansas City game week 9. The Falcons, 49ers, and Cowboys all beat the Bucs while totaling less than a hundred rushing the football.

The Cowboys had only 31 yards rushing versus the Bucs and still won. This is an opportunity for the Commander passing game. Max involvement from the receiving corps and tight ends is crucial. The screen game could be war decisive as could a rollout counter draw.

Bucs have the numbers and a great coach. But I think Washington has the power of the Glow.

I'm going to say Washington wins 31.7 to 31.6. Bucs and Commanders set the record in double OT.

Bibliography

Tampa Bay is number 2 in average time of possession at 32:07 (1927 Seconds). At home they average 32:50 (1970 seconds). Their defense averages 27:53 (1673 seconds) on the field overall. 27:10 at home (1630 seconds). Their last three games the Bucs held the ball for 35:25 (2125 seconds), second in the league. Opponents had 24:35 (1475 seconds). 

Tampa had 181 drives (10.6 per game) this year. They scored on 48.1% of them (5.1 times a game). Their opponents had 182 drives (10.7 per game) and scored on 40.1% of them (4.3 times a game). The Bucs average 2.70 points per drive. Their opponents average 2.08.

Tampa scores 3.5 TDs a game. They allow 2.4 TDs a game.

Washington is tied with the 49ers at 13. They average 30:29 (1829 seconds). Their time of possession in away games is 29:25 (1765 seconds). Meaning their defense averages 29:31 (1771 seconds) on the field overall, 30:35 (1835 seconds) on the field in away games. Their last three games Washington had the ball for 26:57 (1617 seconds), 28th in the League over that span. They scored 89 points in those three games averaging 29.7 ppg (0.01836 points a second).

Opponents scored 76 points (25.3 ppg) on the Commanders over that time on 33:03 time of possession (1983 seconds). That's 0.0383 points a second.

The average per second for the last three games produces Tampa 31.9, Washington 28.4.

If you do full season points per second, ROUGHLY!, Tampa wins time of possession 31 to 29. Tampa wins 28.3 to 27.3.

Washington has had 176 drives (10.4 per game) this year scoring on 50% of them. They have surrendered 171 drives (10.1 per game) with opponents scoring on 41.5%. The Commanders scored 2.73 points a drive. Their opponents scored 2.25.

Washington scores 5.2 times a game, 3.2 scores being touchdowns. Opponents score 4.2 times a game with 2.6 being touchdowns.

Washington scores 3.2 TDs a game. They allow 2.6 TDs a game.

Tampa scores 4.65 times in this game averaging their scores a game with Washington's scores allowed a game, with 3.05 scores averaging out to TDs. That's 18.3 TD points. Season average field goal points 5.3. Two point six extra points. Point 9 other points. Tampa scores 27.1.

Washington scores 4.75 times in this game with 2.8 being touchdowns. 17.1 TD points. 6 Field goal points. 2.6 Extra points. Point 8 points other. Washington scores 26.5.

Washington possessed the ball 26:19 the first game v Tampa. They scored 20 points. They were 25% on third downs.

Tampa had the ball 33:41. They scored 37 points. They were 69% on third downs.

Washington's PPG Ave in away games is 26.4.

Tampa Bay scores 28.6 ppg in home games.

Tampa Bay has scored 502 points. 342 TD Points. 90 Field Goal Points. 54 Extra Points. 16 points other. 20.1 TD Points a game. 5.3 Field goal points a game. 3.2 Extra Point points a game. Point 9 points a game other.

Washington has scored 485 points. 324 TD Points. 102 Field Goal Points. 45 Extra Point points. 14 Points other. 19.1 TD points a game. 6 Field goal points a game. 2.6 Extra points a game. Point 8 points a game other.

Opponents scored 385 points on Tampa this year.

Opponents scored 391 on Washington this year.

The Professor: The Joker is Wild

Commanders going down to Dallas this weekend. They clinched a playoff spot. With a win they could lock up the 6th seed.

Washington is a 4 point favorite. The over/under is 44. The Over is 11-5 in both Cowboy and Commanders games this year. Dallas is 4-1 the last five games against the Commanders including a 34-26 victory in D.C. earlier this year. Cowboys are 2-6 at home and have closed their away season at 5-3. Dallas likes going on tour.

According to si.com, the Skins are 10-5-1 against the spread this year. Dallas is 6-10.

Washington closes its season at home with a 7-2 winning record and can clinch a winning road record with a dub at Jerry World.

Washington scores 28.9 points a game. They surrender 23.3. Dallas scores 20.7 a game. They give up 27.8. That averages to Washington 28.4, Dallas 22. Ceding the traditional field goal to the home team, you get either Commanders 28.4, Dallas 25 or Commanders 25.4, Dallas 22. Both scores are over 44. In both outcomes, Dallas covers.

Washington runs for 156 a game. Cowboys cough up 138 a game. Washington throws for 219 a game. Dallas allows 227 a game. 

Dallas runs for 97 a game. Washington gives up 136 a contest. Dallas passes for 222 yards a game. Washington gives up 187 a matchup.

Dallas ran for 91 and passed for 247 in the first game. Washington ran for 145 and passed for 275. Dallas won time of possession and the turnover battle. KaVontae Turpin had 4 kick returns for 179 yards with one spanning 99 yards for the touch. 

There are confounding variables of a non-numerical nature. Motivation for the Dallas-Washington finale is once again ambiguous. If you remember, the Cowboys a few years ago had also clinched the playoffs. Their only motivation was to add a little window dressing to their status with a longshot acquisition of a higher seed. In their confusion, they lost 26-6.

Washington is in a similar no man's land. 

The Dallas Fan Base would love to see a fifty burger hung up on Dan Quinn as many of them see Quinn as the reason Dallas did not go to the Super Bowl last year. Ironically, the man Dallas Fans most want out of Dallas is Jerry Jones, who no doubt sees dollar signs in one Jayden Daniels and would enjoy displaying said Daniels's Pelt on his wall to galvanize investment in the Cowboys. 

The Joker is wild. And Jones is the Joker in this poker game. He will find a way to get in on any deal he thinks will make him some money and beating Jayden would do that. He's done it once and wants to do it again. And he does it in grand style. In a supersized way. For Jerry, a thorough whupping of the wannabe Commanders would be a delicious sugar substitute for the Lombardi Trophy.

Because of Quinn's involvement, Dallas Fans find themselves in rare agreement with the Ring Master.

They both would enjoy the hell out of making Quinn and the Commanders out to be frauds.

With the Eagles digging deep the coffin on the Commanders the following week in a Winter is Coming concrete galoshes type game.

But I'll go Commanders 25, Dallas 22. They win. Dallas covers.

Jayden and Magic get a homecoming game in LA. 

Which also makes Jerry and Roger Goodell money.

Go Going to the Playoffs

It seems appropriate to play a bit of celebratory music in light of the Washington Commanders making the playoffs with their most victories in a season since 1991.

D.C. is often referred to as the Birthplace of the Go Go.  That goes back to the days of Sonny and Bobby Mitchell. Lombardi and George Allen. 

We're going to the Playoffs which feels a little like going to a Go Go.

Hey man, it feels like Dancing in the Street around here.

With a little March to the Trenches. 

Greg Cosell was on Inside the Birds recently and did an interesting analysis of some All-22 on the recently accomplished Eagles Upset. We don't hear of Greg much around here. This was the first take of his I've heard this year regarding Jayden Daniels.

The Rookie King of the NFL in 1937 and King of the Texas Rangers in 1941

Sammy Baugh is a fascinating guy. 

As a rookie multi-talent, QB, DB, and punter, he won the NFL Championship in 1937. 

In 1941, he starred in an anti-Nazi infowar movie serial called King of the Texas Rangers. Fighting the Fifth Column.

In Michael Wilbon's homage to Baugh upon Slingin Sammy's passing in 2008, Steve Sabol is cited as noting Robert Duvall based his Lonesome Dove character Gus McRae in part on Sammy Baugh with whom he had met while researching the part.

Maybe King of the Texas Rangers was what inspired Duvall to consult Sammy as well as to get the flavor of the Texan Accent.

In football jargon, Duvall was obsessed with game film from an acting standpoint.

Anyway, you can stream King of the Texas Rangers on YouTube at Atomic Age Pictures. 

I stumbled on all this trying to figure out what precedents Jayden Daniels might set this year and I think the best he can do is to win the Super Bowl as a Rookie, which no one has done. 

Determining if no one had won an NFL CHAMPIONSHIP as a Rookie QB was easier for me being an amateur Redskin historian and knowing about Sammy Baugh. BUT, if he was the only one or the FIRST seems to be a research project worthy of a grant simply because recordkeeping during the early era of Pro Football was virtually nonexistent.

However, Skins fans know winning the league title as a Rookie for Jayden wouldn't even be a team first. 

Well.

Only the Super Bowl Era counts. 

Right?

No Rookie QB Has Ever Won the Super Bowl But . . .

In 1937, Rookie Slingin Sammy Baugh, official job title "Tailback", but in reality, Quarterback, led the Washington Redskins to the NFL Title.

 

Source: JSTube36

Could Jayden Daniels be the second Washington Rookie QB to take the League Title and the first to win the Super Bowl?

The Professor: Washington Wins Atlanta Covers and Take the Over

The Washington Commanders are the Public's pick to win Sunday Night Football at a rate of 76% making the Atlanta Football Falcons the anti-Public choice to beat the Commanders and thrust Washington into a precarious playoff position.

Washington is a 4 point favorite at Home versus Atlanta according to Wunderdog. Meaning the game is a virtual draw at a neutral site. The Over Under is 47.5.

The Skins are 3-2 in the last five games versus Atlanta including last year's 24-16 Commander victory. Drake London caught 9 passes in that game. Darnell Mooney is also a worry.

Bijan Robinson is just under 1200 yards for the year and will certainly challenge the Commanders run defense.

Falcons Coach Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn in Atlanta in 2020 when Quinn was fired after 5 games. Coach Ra was Quinn's Defensive Coordinator. He also coached the secondary for the Washington Redskins 2012 Squad featuring Robert Griffin III. 

He was Defensive Coordinator for the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams, a team that featured three ex-Redskin Assistants as Head Coach and Offensive and Defensive Coordinators.

Kliff Kingsbury's Arizona Cardinals were 1-1 versus Morris' Super Bowl Rams Squad. They also split with the Rams the following season, Kingsbury's last in Arizona.

The Falcons score 21.8 points a game. They give up 23.3 points a game. The Skins give up 23.2 points and score 28.8. The Falcons offense is 6th in passing, 12th in rushing. Their defense is 21st against the pass and 12th against the run. 

The Commanders are 3rd in rushing and 16th in passing. They are 29th against the run and 4th against the pass on defense. 

Bullwark Robinson has seven games with a rushing touchdown. Interestingly, the Falcons are 2-5 when Robinson scores one or more touchdowns. He is also a threat in the pass game having caught 56 balls.

The Falcons are getting 4 which is enough for them to cover in a game which averages out to Washington 26.05, Atlanta 22.5. The average is already over the Over. 

Mitigating circumstances are: High degree of familiarity with sources and methods between coaching staffs. This familiarity helps the young Falcon QB as well as productive receivers and a good running game. 

But familiarity versus unpredictability is also in play as the young Washington squad has had spikes in improvement in key football games resulting in surprisingly positive performances in areas perceived to be weaknesses.

I'm afraid the math and the Public necessitate a Falcons pick to cover. However, I'm picking the Commanders to win in a game too close for cardiac patients to bear. 

Take the over.

Commanders 26, Falcons 25.9

The Professor: Take the Over and Washington to Win

According to Wunderdog, the betting public favors the Lions, the Vikings, and the Eagles all getting to 13-2 by close of NFL Business on Sunday or whenever the week officially ends. 

The Philadelphia Eagles, this week's opponent for our beloved Washington Commanders, are in a race for the first round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs. It is to my mind better to face the Eagles in the playoffs after having had a bye. 

If the Eagles have one weakness it is lack of focus. A bye gives them time to get distracted. It also interrupts the flow more than it heals. They will be rebooting the system mentally if not physically. Football teams are more like rockets than computers. They take a lot more to get them going again than to keep going. The Eagles, to state it differently, are a streaky team. 

Enter into the record the evidence that they've won 10 straight. Shortly before that streak began, various personages were calling for the Head Coach's head. 

The Eagles strike me as a team a Bernard Malamud villain would love to destroy. Hire the Follies to get them drunk during the bye week. They attend Jazz festivals. Have plenty of Sax before the fight. They're hungover on game day. Slow and punch drunk they lose the pennant. 

Some sort of outlandish deep state prank like that would be the only thing keeping this Eagles Team from taking this year's world's title. Since the likelihood of subterfuge is nil, yes, I think the Birds are this year's Super Bowl Champs.

And its why I think Washington winning this game is a harbinger of exiting the playoffs almost as soon as they get there. Because of their success this weekend, they will draw the eventual Super Bowl Champion in the Wild Card and because Washington has more holes than Swiss cheese, the Eagles will then dispatch our injury plagued Commanders in unceremonious, almost yawning fashion.

There is anti-public ground for betting the Commanders. They're getting 3 points from the Birds. The Public likes the Eagles at 65%. Meaning Philly is naturally two field goals better than the Commanders. But I think they are in reality two to three TDs better. The game should be Philly 42, Washington 21. 

It isn't going to be.

Let me remind you the last time Philly was on a streak like this they lost to the Washington Commanders. That was the year they lost to KC in the Super Bowl. AND they had previously embarrassed Washington in DC. 

The Commanders are rated 3rd in the League in Rushing. The Eagles have held 8 opponents to under 100 yards rushing. One of those was the Washington Commanders in their previous engagement. The Eagles have 39 sacks on the year. The Commanders surrendered 8 to the Saints. They expect starting center Tyler Biadasz back, the man many credit with keeping Jayden Daniels safe and the running game humming.

The average PPG is Philly 24.5, Washington 23. I guess you can short Philly the 3 or credit Washington the 3. The Over Under in the game is 45.

With the Commander Defense, Philly will get their average. So that means take the Over and Washington to win 26-25. It has all the earmarks of a flukish win with a feeling of imposter syndrome sneaking in, especially upon reviewing the box score afterwards. Philly will dominate everything but the score.

Noting that doom is then forecast for the Wild Card Game in Philly with the Eagles easily dispensing with the Commanders, 42-21. The Eagles then smash the remaining punks in the playoffs.

Only then do they lose focus.

If the Commanders lose, they shockingly win the opening Wild Card game and beat an unfocused Philly team to ultimately cough up a Super Bowl Opportunity to the Detroit Lions.

Detroit then coughs up the Super Bowl to the Denver Broncos. More so because every Lion is on IR. 

The Professor: Spencer Rattlers Some Cages

The Washington Commanders are newly minted 7 point favorites at New Orleans this Sunday. That is up from 3.5.

The Over Under is 43.

The Public is on the Commanders at 60%. Not the biggest number of the week. That belongs to Arizona at 77%.

New Orleans is 3-0 versus Washington since 2017. 

New Orleans is probably without Derek Carr and Taysom Hill. Rookie Spencer Rattler is probably the starter for this matchup in the Big Easy. He\s played against the Chargers, Denver and Tampa.

He's been sacked 14 times in three appearances.

Interim Coach Darren Rizzi is 3-1. 

According to Odds Shark, the Saints are 2-7 against the spread the last 9 games. Commanders are 8-3-1 against the spread their last 12. The Over in Commander Road Games is 6-1 over the last seven.

The Saints are able in an area of weakness for the Commanders. They are 10th in rushing and 7th in rushing touchdowns. Klint Kubiak's Saints Offense posted two 40 burgers in their 2-0 start. Their top back is Alvin Kamara. His top game he popped for 155 against the Panthers in a one-point loss.

The average of the scoring averages is Washington 25.7, New Orleans 22.6. That supports the Over.

I'm thinking Kubiak and Kamara will post good efforts. I think Rattler will play well. The Saints will beat the spread but not the Commanders.

Commanders 26, Saints 25.

Targeting Involvement

Commanders can help themselves Sunday with a win over the Titans. 

Titans have an up and coming young QB and a fine defense. I'm sure they have it in mind to get a winning season in the bag with a victory over Washington being part of the equation.

The meme being created in D.C. about the Commander Offense is that Kliff Kingsbury's typical late season brain fog is hampering production. 

Then there is the issue of the defense being gassed in the fourth quarter. 

One of the Anti-Kingsbury knocks on the Air Raid Offense is it gasses its own defense. Pro-Kliffers cite Kingsbury's willingness to run the ball in the pros to deflect the hate. Yet the Commanders have gone up-tempo quite a bit and they excel in the 2-minute. With some saying they should be in 2-minute the whole game, throwing up the hands on the gassed defense phenomenon believing it is unsolvable due to lack of depth on defense. Hoping they come out ahead in the inevitable shootouts.

Which arrives at placing winning squarely on the shoulders of one Jayden Daniels, M.D.

If we are going to do "basketball on grass", the point guard QB has to maximize involvement of his receivers. Contrary to the thinking of many, that our "Doctor J" stands in need of additional superstars at receiver, the Air Raid, like its companion piece, zone blocking, was designed for offenses with receivers having the skillsets of slow Lilliputians. 

Theoretically, the Air Raid should work no matter who you have at receiver. I'm not saying the cupboard is empty with the Commanders. I'm also not saying Jayden Daniels couldn't use a Randy Moss type to go with Scary Terry. 

I am saying BBall on Grass is like setting the Thanksgiving Table. You have to spread the targets around. Because it is the targets you do that tell people whether you make the defense work to defend the field. You hear but 9 people caught a pass. But if 8 are only targeted once they are not putting any fear in the defense. Make them defend all five and show them you are serious about it. If you can't do it, you are number six. 

I get it. You are not a number. You are a free man. So run like hell.

There's an old saying: Who is Number One?

You are Number 6. Number 5 is Number 6. Check your six, Receivers. Come back to the quarterback. 

All well and good. But how do the Commanders keep from coughing up a 40 Burger to the Titans? How do you play BBall on Grass and not make your defense look like Snails on Peanut Butter?

I mean, in the old days in the NBA you let your Subs play the third quarter and rested your superstars. It helped if your GM got you good defenders for second teamers. 

That's what I would do here. Put those young "freak athletes" out on the field in the third quarter and attack like Barbarians sacking Rome. Nothing fancy. Nothing to communicate. Just simple no brainer primitive aggression. Then allow the first team D to be your closer in the fourth quarter.

Then you INVOLVE the running backs by running the damn ball in the fourth quarter on Offense, 

Like Secretariat in the Belmont. In the fourth quarter run like hell.

The Professor: Take the Over and the Titans to Cover

This week the Washington Commanders face the Tennessee Football Titans.

The Titans are averaging 18.4 points per game on Offense. On Defense, they give up 26.4 points a game.

The Commanders are averaging 27.8 points a game. They give up 23.1 points a game. 

The Titans are the Number One Defense against the pass at 169 yards a game. They are 8th against the run. On Offense, they are 30th in passing and 12th in rushing. The question with regard to their 3-8 record is how come they have not won more with that defense.

The answer is turnovers. The yards per game against the defense is impacted by the short fields the Titans have gifted their opponents. The anointed Super Champion Detroit Lions routed the Titans 52-14 but started five drives at or inside the Titan 30 yard line. All five drives ended in TDs. The Lions had all of 225 yards total offense only 61 through the air. The Titans are 3-7 when they cough up the ball one or more times. The one game they went without a turnover they lost but they beat the Texans after committing 3. They rank next to last in Turnover Differential.

The Titans hold a 3-2 record against Washington the last five matchups. Average score 21-19 Tennessee. The average score including 2024 points is 24-21 Washington. Suggesting 27-21 Washington with the 3-point home field bonus. Yet the field goal kicking of late has been volatile for the Commanders due to injury.

Titans are 2-4 on the road but won last week at Houston. Washington is 4-2 at home.

For Anti-Public aficionados, the Public Consensus is Washington at 68%. The Over Under is 44.5. Washington is favored by 5.5.

I guess it comes down to the Washington kicking game. All we have is the Dallas game for recent behavior.

Ergo, the Titans cover. Take the over. Washington wins 24-21.

The Professor: Dallas Covers Washington Wins

This week the Washington Commanders face the Dallas Cowboys. 

Dallas has been struggling of late. Washington fans worry their prize QB Jayden Daniels is injured. This explains, they feel, his recent decline. Injury can account for a decrease in efficacy. So can the Rookie Wall. In combination, well, one can understand how that might impact even dynamic individuals.

Some people feel a bullpen approach is needed. You have an Ace and two Relievers. With recent deformations of the NFL Calendar such as European and Japanese Games, 17 plus game seasons, the disfigured Thursday Night Football mutation, the ability to go to a reliever would certainly allow your Ace to be fresh in the event of playoffs. 

When your Ace is a rookie the issue of exhaustion and burnout is magnified.

The Cowboys are 78-46-2 versus the Washington Football Franchise. The last five games between Dallas and Washington average out to Dallas 34, Washington 14. 

The Cowboys score 18.7 ppg. They give up 29.3. Washington scores 28 a game and gives up 22.1. If you take the last five games into account, Dallas wins 25 to 24 without the traditional field goal awarded to the home team. That would make it Washington 27 Dallas 25. Based on the ten games played so far, Washington wins 29-20, 32-20 with the three point home field. Washington is 4-1 at home. Dallas is 3-2 away and 0-5 at home which suggests the Cowboys can't wait to get away from the wife and play better on the road.

For Anti-Public theorists, the Public according to Wunderdog is coming down 74% in favor of Washington. The Cowboys are getting 10 points. They are 2-8 against the spread. 

Cooper Rush is 3-1 in games played versus Washington. 

For Coaching Chess Enthusiasts, Kliff Kingsbury's Cardinals faced off against Mike Zimmer's Vikings in 2021, winning 34-33. Kliff called 21 runs and 36 passes. Dallas is 19th against the pass, 31st against the run. One yard ahead in run defense is Washington ranked 30th. But Dallas is 31st on Offense running the football.

The Over Under is 45. 

Here's a few maxims: It is easier to BEGIN running the football than it is to BEGIN stopping the run. Both teams will be effective in the run game unless the mercurial Washington Defense comes up with one of their surprise gems. The Ex-Cowboys on Defense will be psyched.

Questions to be answered: Can the Dallas Defense do anything with the intel on Washington from the Ravens, Steelers, and Eagles games? Is Jayden Daniels officially beleaguered? Or will the magic return?

Were it a nondivision opponent with these numbers I'd pick the Commanders to cover and win in a shutout. But the Cowboys know Dan Quinn. Mike Zimmer takes notes. 

To quote Phil Collins, he was there and he saw what you did. Saw the Eagles and the Ravens and the Steelers with his own two eyes. He thinks you've all been a pack of lies.

I think it is going to be closer than ten points. I hope not. I'd prefer 24-0 Washington. But the Math doesn't say that.

Take the over. Dallas Covers. Washington wins 29-27 as Frankie Luvu picks off Cooper Rush in the end zone as Dallas is going in for the winning touchdown. 

The Crowd goes wild.

 

The Professor: Philly Wins in OT Washington Covers Take the Over

This week the Commanders take the field against the Philadelphia Eagles tomorrow night at 8:15.

Here's Pro Football Reference\s Game Preview.

Eagles have a 3-1 home record. Washington posts a 3-2 road record. The much ballyhooed extravaganza is at Lincoln Financial Field.

The Commanders cough up 21.7 ppg which is still 12th despite the bloat. Philly relinquishes 17.9 ppg, Number Five League Wide. Commanders Defense is 28th versus the run surrending 142 a contest. Philly is Fifth in the League allowing an even One Hundred a matchup. 

Both defenses are in the Top Five in the League against the pass. Washington is No. 5. Philly is No. 3.

Washington scores 29 a game on Offense while Philly scores 25.9, third and seventh in the League respectively.

Washington is 7-3 against the Spread. Philadelphia is 5-4.  

Philadelphia is a 3.5 point favorite at Home. Yet, the Public, per Wunderdog, is slightly favoring the Commanders at 51%. The over under is 48.5. Wunderdog's computer picks Philadelphia, with the Birds winning 27.1 to 21.9. The Eagles have a 67% chance to win.

The average score of the last five games is Philly 27.4, Washington 23.6, favoring Philly to cover and favoring the over. The result of averaging the average points scored and allowed features Philly 23.8, Washington 23.4. Adding a Philly home field field goal, you nearly get the spread at 3.4 points. But definitely an OT possibility.

In 2021, Dan Quinn's first as Cowboy Defensive Coordinator and Nick Sirianni's first as Eagle Head Coach, the Cowboys swept the Eagles 41-21 and 51-26. Eagles ran for just 64 yards the first game but 149 in the second game.

In 2022, the Eagles split with the Cowboys, winning the first game 26-17 while rushing for 136. The Birds lost the second game 40-34 with the Cowboys doing better against the run holding Philly to 87 yards.

In 2023 came another split with the Cowboys. The Birds won the first game 28-23, netting 109 yards on the ground. Dallas pounded Philly 33-13 in the rematch while holding the Eagles to 106 yards on the ground.

Commanders assistant Brian Johnson was the Eagle Offensive Coordinator for the 2023 squad. The Eagles replaced both coordinators from 2023. The new OC is Kellen Moore who served the same capacity with the Cowboys in 2021 and 22 when Dan Quinn was Cowboy Defensive Guru. 

The New Defensive Coordinator needs no introduction.

Kliff Kingsbury's Arizona Cardinals lost to Sirianni's Eagles 17-20 in 2022. The Cardinals ran 26 times and threw 42 times. They had 23 first downs and converted 8 of 14 third downs.

The last four games the Eagles are averaging 213.5 yards rushing. The Commanders are averaging giving up 150.2 yards a contest. So Eagles fans expect 182 on the ground for the contest. 

Washington fans are concerned about the Eagle passing game. However, the Birds won one game this year with only 70 yards passing, netting 269 yards on the ground against the New York Football Giants.

The Eagles rollicking running game and home field advantage seems to foretell of an Eagle Victory. Need I remind you of the staffs' familiarity with each other. Speed on Washington's defense should be accelerated as a result of the inside info. There could be long successful Philly drives that suddenly stall out. 

Meaning this is an overtime game. Philadelphia wins 26.8 to 23.4 in OT. Washington covers by an eyelash. Take the over.

The Professor: Take the Over and the Steelers to Cover

One interesting thing about the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers is only three times in eight games have they surrendered 100 or more yards rushing. 

The Steelers are 1-2 in those three games. 

The Steelers average 23.4 points a game. They give up 14.9. Their QBs have thrown just one pick all year while the defense has 15 takeaways. Pittsburgh is 26th in passing, 8th in rushing. The Commanders are 29th against the run, 5th against the pass.

Most people I think would consider the 5th place ranking against the Pass for Washington to be a bit of a mirage. Though people appear enthused about the addition of Marshon Lattimore and expect him to improve the Commander secondary.

The Commanders average 29.2 points a game. They give up 21. The Commanders are 11th in passing, 3rd in rushing. The Steelers are 21st against the pass and 4th against the run.

The average of the points per game = Pittsburgh 22.2, Washington 22.05.

The only two times the Steelers have lost they gave up over a 100 yards rushing. However, there also seems to be a stalemate for the Commanders ranking wise in the running game versus the Steelers. The rankings seem to suggest the Commanders be well advised to pass.

Can you run on a stout run defense? The answer was no against the Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers' mortal enemy. Is the answer for the Commanders still no?

The last Washington Football Coach to extinguish the Steelers was the much maligned Ron Rivera whose  2020 squad upset an undefeated Steelers unit lead by NFL Icon Ben Roethlisberger. 

Previously, Dan Quinn's 2018 Atlanta Falcons fell to Mike Tomlin's Steelers 17-41. Steelers ran for 131 yards.

Versus Russell Wilson in 2016, Dan Quinn's Falcons fell 24-26 to the Seahawks, where Russ tossed for 270 yards and 0 TDs while netting 7 yards on 6 carries. Wilson's Seahawks were 5-14 on Third Downs in that game.

They met again in the playoffs. This time Russ ran for 49 yards on 6 runs while tossing for 225 yards. He threw two picks and two touchdowns in a 20-36 loss to the Falcons. The Hawks were 5-11 on Third Downs.

In 2017, the Falcons beat Russ 34-31. Wilson ran for 86 yards. Russ beat the Falcons 27-20 in 2019. 

In 2020, Russ posted his best game against Dan Quinn's defense. going 31-35 and 322 yards with 4 TDs. The Hawks defeated Dan Quinn in the first of his last five games as Falcons Head Coach. Seahawks 38, Falcons 25. 

Quinn is 2-4 versus Russell Wilson with the average being Russ 30.5, DQ 26. Russ is a 4.5 point favorite over DQ.

Kliff Kingsbury's 2019 Cardinals squad were eclipsed by the Steel Curtain 17-23. Steelers busted for 140 yards while Kliff's running game was limited to 71 yards.

The Commanders are 2.5 point favorites. The over under is 45.5. The Game will go over if DQ and Russ hit their average.

Points per game plus Russ versus DQ = 26-24 Steelers.

However, the three points traditionally ceded to the Home Team gives a 27-26 home win to the Commanders. Wink wink officiating.

So I'm taking the over with the Steelers to cover and the Commanders to win.

The Professor: Washington Wins, Covers and Take the Over

According to Wunderdog, Washington is at present a 3.5 point favorite over the New York Football Giants. The Over Under is 43.5. The Commanders are the most pounded by the Public with 72% backing Washington.

The Giants are 3-5 Against the Spread. Washington is 6-1-1.

This is Washington's first rematch of the year having beaten the G-Men at home in a close game. What adjustments will the Teams make? What has gotten better? What worse?

According to Stat Muse, Washington is 2-5-1 versus Giants QB Daniel Jones.

Both teams have injury issues on the O-Line. A worry for Washington is the Left Tackle Position.

Washington is 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 29.5. The Giants are 31st at 14.6. The Commanders are allowing 20.9 points a game. The Giants 21.9. The Commanders are 3rd in rushing, 10th in passing. The Giants are 23rd in passing and 24th in rushing. On Defense, both teams are in the top 10 versus the pass, but in the bottom ten against the run. 

There are two things I think can happen. Considering the Commanders are facing Daniel Jones their arch-nemesis, a letdown could occur due to hangover from the Miracle in Landover. Or the Miracle in Landover could be a launching pad. 

In the Eagles 28-3 victory over the G-Men, Philadelphia didn't bother with the pass much, amassing 269 yards rushing on 45 carries.  

Washington's defense is playing better when compared to their previous encounter with the Giants. I'm sure the Giants feel confident they can run the ball against the Commanders and vice versa. 

I'll take Washington to win. They cover. And they achieve the Over by an eyelash.

This will look familiar.

Commanders 26 Giants 18

The Professor: Commanders and the Over

The Monsters of the Midway are 2.5 point favorites to vanquish the Washington Commanders this weekend in a matchup with playoff tie-breaker implications.

The Public is siding with Washington at a 58% clip. The over under according to USA Today is 43. 

The last time Dan Quinn faced Matt Eberflus was in 2022 as Defensive Coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys. The Bears ran for 240 yards but lost to Dallas 49-29. Bears dominated time of possession, 36:04 to 23:56.

Last year under Eberflus, the Bears ran for 178 against Washington in a 40-20 pasting.

Former Redskins Offensive Quality Control guy Shane Waldron is the Offensive Coordinator for Eberflus. Waldron worked for Sean McVay in LA before becoming Seattle Seahawk OC in 2021 for Pete Carroll. 

Bears Defensive Coordinator Eric Washington worked for Ron Rivera in Carolina. He and Montez Sweat may be particularly excited about the possibility of manhandling the Commanders. Washington was Assistant Head Coach last year for a Buffalo Squad that annihilated his former boss 37-3 last year in Washington. The Bills ran for 168 yards in that game.

Ron Rivera is a frequent whipping boy for the Washington Media. Bears social media have been advocating busting Jayden Daniels up, knocking him out of the game. To hear Washington Media tell it, Jayden Daniels is all Washington has. A lot of disrespect for Marcus Mariota exists in D.C.'s starstruck, bandwagonish media.

The refrain has been "I don't want to see Marcus Mariota again."

Some of the same media people who were big advocates of the Mike Shanahan zone read usage of Robert Griffin are extolling the virtues of continuing to call designed runs for Jayden Daniels. Having witnessed Daniels curl himself up into a fetal trash compactor shape, I begin to get PTSD about the thought of him doing design runs.

I am not convinced he falls right. The same way I wasn't convinced RGIII was falling right.

Daniels is best running on called pass plays. Where running is a nested audible to pass plays. Called runs seems to invite him to become a contortionist at the end of the play. RGIII used to do the same thing. He used to go splat like a cartoon when he fell. 

A Quarterback who habitually throws himself into the trash compactor is just not going to survive your designed runs. So you'd better get used to seeing Marcus Mariota. The guy you don't want to see again.

The Media deserves to lose this ball game 73-0. The Bears Media 73, D.C. Media 0. The D.C. Media get knocked out in the second half with busted ribs.

But there is more to the team than Jayden Daniels.  

Both teams are going to try to run the ball. Both teams are good against the point spread. 

Not a game for people with COPD.

I like the over and I like the Commanders to win 27-24. Mariota conducts the game winning drive.

The Professor: Commanders Over Panthers and Panthers Cover

This week's game against the Carolina Football Panthers sees the Washington Commanders 7.5 point favorites in a matchup between Coaches who are very familiar with each other.

Dan Quinn is 8-3 all time against the Carolina Franchise. Kliff Kingsbury is 1-3 versus Carolina. Quinn coached with Dave Canales in the Pete Carroll Coaching tree. Canales did pretty much everything except waterboy on offense for Seattle.

Tangentially, Kliff was 3-5 versus the Seattle Seahawks as Head Coach in Arizona.

The Over/Under according to Wunderdog is 51.5 with the Public going 75% in favor of Washington. The Sharps apparently are on the Commanders as well.

The Running Game will be key for both teams. Both teams will have to run the ball and stop the run. Neither team is great in run defense.

I basically go on the chess match history between Coaches and Schemes. I think familiarity tends to make things either very close or an out-and-out blowout.

I'm guessing close is more likely giving the volatility of the young but developing Washington Commander defense  and the presence of Savvy Panther Veteran QB Andy Dalton.

I'll go with the under. Washington wins 27-24.

Carolina covers. Daniels conducts a game winning drive.