The Head Coach

Everybody, pretty much, loves the hiring of Adam Peters as General Manager of the Washington Commanders.

Getting a Head Coach on board is a little trickier. I guess you can glean a little bit of the style you can expect from the Commanders under Peters by reviewing the 49ers. One would hope Peters brings a running game over from the West Coast. And a tough defense. You want to just say copy San Francisco. 

But really it starts getting a little clearer the minute they hire a Head Coach and keeps getting clarified as that Coach picks his staff. That's not the end of the intrigue about what exactly Peters is going to do. Free Agency and the Draft will be here before you know it. By September, we should know the general direction Peters wants to take the team. It will be his first roster and maybe not the definitive Adam Peters Roster but it should have a leaning one way or the other.

There is not long to wait. Soon the Super Bowl will be done. And the fun for Washington fans will begin in earnest. It already has for roster geeks. The problem is, though there is not long to wait, a lot can happen during that short time, up to and including the bottom falling out in the Ben Johnson/Mike Macdonald quest.

The young coach motif seems a sure bet since having a GM in the first place usually indicates the Head Coach doesn't have the experience to be the GM. The structure seems to disallow the veteran coach.

It makes a sort of new car sense. You don't get the mechanical problems of the used car. Jim Harbaugh and Bill Belichick would seem a little high maintenance. Although both those guys have a lot of influence in the football world. Harbaugh could still impact the Washington job if Macdonald ascends to the post. Macdonald was his D-Coordinator in Michigan.

I like Jim Harbaugh. I think Belichick is looking for his retirement home. I think Eric Bieniemy is a very strong candidate. I know the talk. His good cop/bad cop doesn't set well with everybody. Neither did Lombardi's. Nor Parcells. The only question I'd have is what he would do on defense. Knowing EB, he probably has some ideas.

If it had been me, I'd have hired Harbaugh right off the bat. But it's not. 

Let's see what Peters has in mind.

Harris is a Lucky Guy

Josh Harris started his era off right on Monday. The parting of the ways with Ron Rivera will be a blessing for both sides. 

Rivera is ready for his next phase. He has turned his misfortune in D.C. into a pot of gold for Harris. This is easily the most opportune offseason Washington has faced since the hiring of Bobby Beathard. Rivera has put the team in position.

The Commanders have money. They have draft picks. They have transformational capacity. How they proceed will be fun to watch. 

Can they win right off the bat? Yes. Can they win right off the bat AND five years down the road? Yes. The former has mainly to do with good coaching. The latter with getting a good GM/front office in place.

There are a lot of good candidates out there for both positions. Harris has picks and money. It is a good time to have picks and money. The timing couldn't be better for Josh in that respect.

I'm personally enamored with joining the Harbaugh Football Family. Wooing Jim Harbaugh to town would save some valuable time. He just won a National Title with Michigan. He could join the rarefied air of Jimmy Johnson and Pete Carroll and win both a Natty and a Lombardi. He had the best O-Line in college ball. He is not allergic to running the ball. And his defense was a swarm of sharks.

The Commanders would be a well-coached ball club.

Harbaugh getting hired would get a jump on the rest of the field. The NFL is a horse race. Getting the post position would be excellent.

Not getting Harbaugh my second choice would be Mike Harbaugh, er, uh, Mike Macdonald (looks like the D is a d which means he's a Highlander), the young guy from the Ravens who is a frequent dinner guest of the Harbaughs.

It is good coaching that will put butts in seats in 2024. That's essential because franchises can be moved if not enough gluteal maximises show up.

Foundation repair is the business of the Front Office.

Finding Out Too Late

I think the Washington Commanders have found out too late what starting Jacoby Brissett would mean for the football team. It has been a trait of Ron Rivera's run. They find out too late about things.

I grant you it might have been hard to detect when precisely Sam Howell was going to have one of his bounce backs. I am afraid he is out of bounce backs for the year. For a variety of reasons. Sophomore slump. His physical style of play. His relentless studying. He seems to have a fried CNS. Unless he rests, that's Uh-Oh territory both for performance and for injuries.

Brissett ignited the ball team on Christmas Eve bringing the Commanders all the way back from twenty points down to take the lead in the final two minutes. He did so unceremoniously, decisively, and consecutively in a way that left no doubt that EB's offense could cut a defense into chicken nuggets given the right leadership.

That's important to know. It benchmarks the offense. The organic components of the offense begin to resurface and function. While Jacoby Brissett was in the football game, the Washington Commanders blocked well, they passed well, and they ran well. And the Defense took note. Sensing impending victory, the Commander defense woke up and smelled some coffee or was it blood?

Had Brissett been starting from the fifth game of the season onward would the Washington Commanders be in this year's playoffs? I think the answer is Yes. Jack Del Rio would not have been fired and the Commanders would not be out Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

There are fans who wanted those three gone for various reasons. I didn't. But it was bound to happen because the organization typically finds out too late what needs to be done. Strategy wise. Personnel wise. Long game wise. The whole organizational ball of wax.

They have to make their discoveries quicker. 

I vote for Brissett finishing the season as the Starter. Using the 49er and Cowboy games as notecards on whether you keep him AS THE STARTER going into next year. It also gives Jacoby the chance to up the Ante on his services because it is obvious the Commanders WILL have significant if not heated competition for his services. To the point of maybe getting Magic Johnson involved in the contract talks.

There won't be the "develop the QB", "lose to win" brain fog with teams courting Jacoby. They will pay him and play him. They will win with him.

I imagine that is what Robert Saleh told Jacoby as they came off the field yesterday. 

I knew we should have signed you.

Because the Jets would be in the playoffs RIGHT NOW if they had done so.

The Self-Realization of the Washington Commanders: Time for Jacoby and the Running Game

It is time for the Washington Commanders to start Jacoby Brissett at Quarterback. He should remain the starter for the rest of the year.

The Commanders have to run the ball, control the clock, and play defense. There has been enough development of Sam Howell. He is developing into a ruined Quarterback. That development has to be arrested. The only way he stops getting sacked is by sitting him, preferably for the remainder of the year. It may be the only way to avoid breaking him permanently. He's starting to look like Carson Wentz.

This is not a pass only team. It is not even a pass first team. It hasn't been built that way. This is not Kansas City.

There is no choice. If you want to honor the Jon Allens, the Daron Paynes, the Terry McLaurins of the world, you play to win, not develop. These guys have been here too long for you to tell them we're developing. They need coaches that play to win and design gameplans that give them the best chance to win.

The best chance for this team to win is running the ball and playing defense. It is easier to run block than pass block. The Offensive Line is struggling in the pass block department AND Howell is struggling getting the ball out. 

This is not Brisset's first rodeo. He won't be "seeing things for the first time". He will likely make a better presnap read than Howell. That may make him a second or two faster.

I'm not saying do not pass. I'm saying don't pass every stinking play. Especially when you're not good enough at QB or O-Line to do that. I'm saying a good run game is good for the passing game. No running game means the defense can blitz like hell. 

The Offensive Gameplan the Commanders played against the New York Football Giants won't win one single game left on the schedule. There is a symbiotic relationship between elevated sacks and lack of running game. 

The O-Line needs help. Two-tight ends. Two backs. A running game. Screen game. A veteran QB. Maybe playing young hungry guys. These are not space cadet things only parting the Red Sea can accomplish. They're grounded concrete things you can do to address the problems facing the Commanders Offense.   

This particular team was just not built to be the Kansas City Chiefs. It was built to run the ball and play defense. 

That's closer to who they are than what we see now.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philly is playing the Buccaneers tonight. They will be trying to save the NFC East from a winless weekend. The worst case scenario for Washington is Philadelphia losing producing a nastiness inspirational to the Eagles.

On the other hand, stacking back to back losses on the Birds would put us in first place. You want to be in first at the end so right now you're just collecting acorns.

Some are characterizing the Buffalo game as a learning experience. I learned we can run the ball on the Bills and the Washington line is better than average at run blocking. The Bills ran the ball last year. Fifteen of their 16 games they were over 100 yards. They won 13 games doing that. They had 168 against us.

In 2007, EB was Running Backs Coach for the Minnesota Vikings who were the Number One rushing squad in the NFL. They had Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. AP ran for over 1300. Taylor for over 800. That team had an historic day running the ball on Novenber 4th. Just shy of 400 yards rushing.

I find it impossible to believe EB has forgotten how to run the ball. I hope his muscle memory serves him well. Running the football is how Washington wins this year. It is how the passing game opens up. It is how sacks go down. Combined with a good screen game, nothing creates more grass for the pass than the run.

Running the football is how you beat the Eagles. I'm sure EB remembers winning the Super Bowl on the same concept. EB will be tempted by the Patriots and Vikings having success in the passing game against Philadelphia. They both lost. When we beat the Eagles last year, we ran on them.

Tampa Bay may be the first to run on them. If not, we should be.

Against the Bills, Sam Howell looked like a guy who thinks he has no help. Against the Broncos he seemed to play team offense. Against the Bills he looked like he felt he had to do it all himself. He had "vision" issues.

You can help with the run. You can also help by scheduling the off-schedule. Schedule one guy in the end zone on all scrambles. Get Sam looking downfield. In scramble drills, all the receivers come back to the QB but the one, the "bolt", who heads to the house. Look for the bolt count down to the comebacks.

I'm sure Sam will have a monster (a positive monster) game before the year is out. They have to pass block better. But they have to establish the run to create grass. Sam has to renounce the "I must do it all myself" sin. But he can't have another game like Buffalo. I know he is resilient. But the body's autonomic nervous system is beyond your control. It knows trouble when it sees it. It will start to erode your football psyche. Whether you think it is happening or not.

So Sam must sit if he repeats the Bills Game at Philly.

The critique of Stoicism in philosophy is that it looks like being in denial at times. But the Stoics also preach understanding what is in your power and what is not in your power. Understand there are things you can't do. You can't take the name of the Lord your God in vain. Some things get you struck by lightning.

Let go let God.

Commanders Over Bills

I'm sure the Bills Mafia believe they have this game against the Washington Commanders in the Bag. The Bills played a lot better against the Raiders after a shocking game against the Jets.

The Jets know the Bills. They tend to give the Bills trouble as a matter of course. 

The Commanders also know the Bills. Both in an agony and ecstacy sort of way. 

Josh Allen, the Bills QB, is a pain in the patooti. He's a run-crazed sling the ball to Mars bigfoot sized Jake Delhomme type son of a gun with a burning desire to win. I wish he was a cream puff. He's not. 

He got the ball to 9 different Bills against the Raiders. Jack Del Rio probably didn't like that. I'm thinking double a-gap with Chase and Montez over the Center, Smith-Williams and Toohill on the edge. Josh seems to like jetting out the middle. It would be nice to throw him a surprise party.

I know Josh is working on protecting the ball. I also know he knows we've got to get him to cough it up. We're at loggerheads. Something's going to give eventually.

The Bills are occasionally vulnerable to the run, as are the Commanders, at least early in the season. Both teams will have to run it. Which one is better is probably the winner. 

I would like a repeat of the Buccaneers Game a few years back when Washington kept Tom Brady off the field. Do the same against Josh. But ball control has not been Eric Bieniemy's tactic against the Bills. He and the Bills tended to get into epic track meets. There's a good chance the game will be similar to the Bronco game points wise. 

Like what the Commanders did in the second half against the Broncos. Like the screen game. Run blocking was good in general. Sam dealt the ball to ten different receivers. I'm sure that made for thrilling film study for the Bills Defense.

The Commander Defense was Godzilla like in the second half. They were snoozing in the first. Josh Allen will be up by 35 points at half time if they do that this week. Like Aaron Rodgers, you have to rock Josh early and often. A couple pick 6s would be optimal. Fumblerooskis. Smokes if you have them.

The Crowd at Fed-Ex is pivotal. Washington fans have to outperform Bills fans to be a fully sufficient inspiration for our guys. A boisterous crowd can be the difference in games like this where we are the underdog. New levels of football glory become possible.

Bills jump out to a 12-0 half-time lead on four field goals. Cameron Cheeseman catches his own snap, bootlegs it into the end zone and Joey Slye boots two field goals, the last one a 62 yarder, one measley second on the clock, and the Commanders win before 65,000 screaming fans.

Commanders 13, Bills 12.

Commanders Over Cardinals

Yesterday's Commanders win was a good one in a bugaboo game against a well-coached and passionate Arizona squad thankfully undefeated by the overwhelmingly obnoxious disrepect they had to endure for months previous to the contest.

Arizona is on film now. This was their best chance to surprise people. The element of surprise will get more rare as their season goes along. But if they can teach themselves to practice and play as hard as they did against Washington, they can be a headache THIS year. And if they get their QB back, who knows?

Washington's concerns about the offensive line were not dispensed with. Arizona sacked Sam six times. It was a glaring stat. The Broncos no doubt took note.

Got to back that rush off with the run. That's why they call it run-pass-option. There has to be a run threat. Can't wring hands about what they should have done with offensive line personnel. It is still an open question. But if they can't get better it will be tough on Quarterback room. You can't expect your QBs to withstand six sacks a game.

You have to understand, fairly or unfairly, you are training your quarterback to panic when you give up that many sacks. This is a particularly resilient young man at QB for Washington. So maybe you won't see it in his face. But make no mistake. He got the message. Don't ignore basic psychology.

Sam did not have his best game. He tried to do too much on the fumble that burped up an Arizona defensive TD. The Cardinals did what good defenses do against young QBs. They attacked. They got in the throwing lanes. They put their hands up after two seconds. Sam faced a team that had a plan for him for the first time this year. Maybe in his career.

He has to know Denver will copy what worked against him. 

But I would characterize his game Sunday as Kilmeresque. Billy Kilmer would have up and down days but when push came to shove he would win the ballgame for you. He was the Rooster Cogburn of NFL Quarterbacking. Perhaps not coincidentally, Bill Kilmer oversaw the proceedings in the Owner's Box with Josh Harris and Sonny.

After Sam suffered his setbacks, he showed True Grit and he put the ball in the end zone. Just like Billy.

Montez Sweat played like a monster. Abdullah Anderson had some plays. Jamin Davis was intense. Ridgeway was at the bottom of the pile again. Forbes broke up the last desparation heave by the Cardinals. The Legal Team of Payne and Allen laid down the law. 

The Defense carried the team. Sam was all the offense there was. The tight ends need to be more of a presence. Robinson, Gibson, and C-Rod need more touches. Gibson had that first down on a well-executed screen. Sam was not good on those throws to B-Rob in the flat. Don't make B-Rob go acrobatic to catch the ball. Gives the defense a chance to close.

If you are going to hit snags, it is best to hit them in a win. And in an early win. When there is a whole lot ground left to cover.

 

Losing Football Games the Easy Way

I'm not enamored with the idea an NFL team should tank its season to nab the Number One Draft Pick. 

Asking a football team to post less than their best effort is asking them to get hurt real bad real fast. What would be the difference anyway between playing your best and going 1-15 and playing your worst and going 0-16? You are going to put sucky film about yourself out there for other teams to go "Yeah, this guy is some trash!"?

And I don't know how you can say the NFL is NOT Fake when teams are tanking. "No, No, they are playing hard it's just if they get a chance to throw the game they will!"

Not to mention it dulls the competitive edge. What are you getting from a game against a team that is tanking? You get infected by the idea you can not only take plays off but take games off.

I hope that hasn't already happened to Washington.

The Commanders need to play hard and be professional in order to win any game. Including this one. I doubt the Offense under EB is going to get lazy with any team, especially the Cardinals. 

But the Defense is another story. NFL teams in general don't tackle well early in the season. They just don't do enough of it in preseason. This Commander franchise in particular under this coaching staff starts turtle slow on Defense. 

And if they tack getting lazy or letting down onto starting slow, well we are talking a Titanic Level disaster on Defense.

That's not even counting the natural shock of playing with an Offense that scores points. Finding yourself back on the field quicker than you are used to. That takes sharper focus. Do they have that sharper focus? Do they have the depth?

Do they have the fire and professionalism of the Offense?

Because there is no way they will beat the hell out of the Cardinals or anybody without that burning desire to play good football. 

Last Year's Browns Game

I'm sure Drew Petzing, Arizona Cardinals Offensive Coordinator, remembers last year's Browns versus Commanders game. Here's a short trip down memory lane for you.

This should give you an idea what plays you might see called this upcoming weekend. I call this line of thinking "conceptuals". Coaching conceptions running in the background of a football game like computer programs. The Unconscious Mind of Football. The subliminal mental reps that occur in the underlying chess game that coaches play in football. 

From a conceptuals stand point, Arizona can beat Washington. The critique of conceptuals analysis would be "Yeah, but the Cardinals don't have the Browns roster." They have no Nick Chubb. No Deshaun Watson. No Amari Cooper.

And the Commanders have no Carson Wentz.

The Cardinals do have Drew Terrell. Ex-Commanders receiving coach. They have Jonathan Gannon whose Eagles Defense contained the Commander running game in another Carson Wentz incident in the which the running game had to be there.

The Cardinals don't have the Eagles Defense.

I don't see the Cardinals matching up well against the Commander Offense. I don't think Eric Bieniemy is going to give up on the running game if it strikes gold. The passing game should also do well against the Cardinals. But I do think the Cardinals can, CAN, move the ball on the Washington Defense. 

I don't like the Media, both National and D.C., viewing the Cardinals as Trash Incarnate. If the past four years are any indication, the Washington Defense is going to start slow and take a while to get the carburetor clean. 

If there is to be a shock, it will be in the form of the Cardinals Offense running the ball and maximizing RPOs which will put points on the board. 

If the Commanders share the obnoxious disrespect the Media has for the Arizona Cardinals, they will find a way to lose. 

The Commanders Offense is the Most Likely to Succeed in the game and they are going to need that success mindset to compensate for what I'm expecting to be a shameful, disrespectful defensive effort. 

This is I'm afraid going to be reminiscent of the Old Denver Broncos under Dan Reeves where Elway/Howell has to conduct a Drive to win the ball game.

Hopefully not. But the tea leaves look awful.

Good Signs and Well Wishes

I guess Ron Rivera created some controversy in his recent press conference. He said some players came to him and expressed concern about Eric Bieniemy's intensity.

Which lead to complaints in some circles about him airing out the family's business.

If I thought what coaches said in press conferences was dispositive, I would myself have a problem with EB. I don't think press conferences mean much outside of injury reports.

Players bitching about new coaches, especially good ones, is not new. I'm glad it is happening now instead of half way through the season. If I have a complaint about Rivera's teams, it is that it took too long for the light bulbs to turn on. Things that should have been ironed out in preseason didn't get solved until 8 or 9 games into the year, well after playoffs were possible.

Some wanted him to keep his mouth shut, but I'm glad Rivera brought this up. It tells me Bieniemy's approach is working. If the players did not complain, it would probably mean everybody was OK with the status quo. In denial about losing. 

But this is a family intervention. It is obvious they needed to change. Like Apollo Creed says. It takes a big man to change. But for some, the little man inside has to whine a bit and cry for his pacifier before he can be weaned from losing.

It is a good sign because it means change is happening. This is how teams that lose emote when they change over to winning. 

It is a bad sign for our opponents. The lackadaisical attitude they could count on from Washington isn't going to be there anymore. I'm all for creating anxiety in our opponents. Taking away their creature comforts when they play us is a good thing.

The Commanders will adjust. It's like the Dark Night of the Soul. It's like Math Anxiety. The frustration has to reach the breaking point. Then insight dawns.

And it is happening IN PRESEASON when it absolutely SHOULD BE happening.

This week's Browns Game should be fun. I really want to see the running game. And the new fellas. See how the punt return game is coming. 

I wish the guys the best. Everybody show down your best. Stay healthy. And may the Football Gods bless you on your journey.

Self-Scouting: Chiefs Versus the NFC East 2021

Well the idea here is to hopefully data mine some clues as to what Eric Bieniemy has in store for the NFC East. The last time the Chiefs played the NFC East was 2021. 

Back when we know-it-all fans and gamblers were attempting to pick the Super Bowl, I used the 2021 KC-Philly game to guide my thoughts. I came out thinking the Eagles had to stop the run because they didn't in that game. The Chiefs had to worry about the Patrick Mahomes injury situation. That should have clued the Eagles in on the fact that the Chiefs had a lined with gold obligation to execute the running game and keep Patrick healthy. 

I couldn't convince myself the Eagles would stop the run in the Super Bowl. I tried hard. But failed. Having no choice based on the evidence, I picked Kansas City even though I rooted for the Eagles for obvious reasons. 

Well not so obvious. Strength of schedule reasons. Hope that clarifies things. You don't want to be told you haven't played anybody when you get to the Super Bowl. To trump that, you need to be in the division of the Super Bowl Champion. And IF that champion is you, Glory to God in the Highest. Ergo, I rooted for the Birds.

The Chiefs went 4-0 against the NFC East in 2021. Against Dallas and the Giants, they got ahead and then pounded the rock. Against Philadelphia, they pounded the rock with Patrick Mahomes tossing 5 TDs. The Washington Game was not competitive.

Here are the Highlights links and stats:

The Washington Game: Offense versus Defense Stats

Chiefs versus Dallas Stats

Chiefs versus Giants Stats

Chiefs versus Eagles Stats

These are clues. In no way am I implying the same results will accrue to the Commanders. Yet I must say the Dallas and Giants games don't look too different from a typical Commander scrum type game. And the Chiefs offense in the 2021 Eagles game was healthy. Mahomes was healthy. He had Tyreek Hill. They ran and they passed. The Eagles flatly could not stop them.

However, you could argue the Commanders did better defensively against the Birds in 2022 than the Chiefs did in 2021. The Eagles posted 30 first downs. Jesus. How could you post 30 first downs and lose?

Well, how could you give up 31 first downs and win?