Incomplete

Was it a catch or an interception?

Was it complete or incomplete?

How can you tell?

I don't think you can tell. 

I'm talking about that controversial call by the officials in the Denver Buffalo game where an interception was ruled and an unjustified change of possession awarded the ball to the Broncos who went on to win in OT.

Evidence justifying change of possession in any football game, but especially a playoff game, ought to be clear and convincing. It ought to be unambiguous. 

What's more that ambiguity ought to apply to the onfield official. If it is clear the official made an arbitrary decision on ambiguous evidence the decision should be overturned.

That official should have the best vantage point. But if the official doesn't have the best view, the ruling should be subject to judicial review.

To avoid the appearance of impropriety and to be fair to both sides, the League Office should have rendered a verdict of "incomplete". 

And as a result, allowing the players to decide the outcome. Otherwise the League is rightly open to charges of bias. 

Bo Nix breaking his ankle is not "poetic justice". 

There is no justice poetic or otherwise in players getting hurt. 

Nix played on that broken ankle. It may have been the impetus for "going for" pass interference calls. Explaining why Nix was lofting his hurls so precariously there at the end.

And Nix being out doesn't necessarily insure a Bronco blowout loss in the Championship. The Broncos lost John Elway in the 1991 Championship Game. Gary Kubiak came on. 

He almost pulled it out. 

The Broncos lost 10-7. 

This time the Bronco back-up gets a full week of practice. 

The Bills lost to the Skins that year in the Super Bowl. 

Cowboys Over Philly and Commanders Go 9-8

Dallas is plus 8 at Philadelphia. The over/under is 47.5. I like Dallas.

Not just to cover. But having the out-and-out gall to win. 

Philly often opens like they just got out of bed. It isn't that Dallas will win on skill. It's another kickoff return for a touchdown and they win 21-20.

Nicki Jhabvala made waves predicting an 8-9 Commander Season. That sounds reasonable. I'll go 9-8 on the strength of a late season surge. They are going to get bunched with the Giants and Cowboys while Philly makes another Super Bowl run.

I have questions about the defense. I'm a little worried the scheme is not right. Or out of date. Is it a match for an up tempo offense? The depth does not appear to be good. Which retards platooning. And discourages the necessary playing time for improvement to germinate. This offense seems to gas its own defense. That makes for entertaining 45-40 AFL-type games. But the Super Bowl? 

No.  

The way teams beat John Elway was to get so far out in front his endgame magic couldn't win. That's how the Eagles beat Jayden. That's how teams will try to beat the Commanders this year. And if there has been no progress on defense, a standard NFL Offense could beat the Commanders using that strategy.  

You are assuming you will outscore everybody. And if you can't platoon an older defense, it will be done well before the playoffs. 

The preseason in no way prepared the team for the season. That lack of preparedness will hurt the early going. They'll be tempted to grab wins by playing the Vets. That might work. But that equals a late slide to my mind. A Ron Rivera type year.

They haven't prepared. The toilets aren't clean. The floor hasn't been swept or mopped. The walkie talkies don't have batteries.

Like the Eagles, they haven't gotten out of bed and are already late for school.

Ergo, they start 0-2. Last place. Where they'll be until midseason.   

That's when coffee is served. 

Offseason Excitement Begins

It was a great year for the Washington Commanders.

Jayden Daniels turned out to be phenomenal. You worry about him being Archie Manning, Sonny Jurgensen, or John Elway. With the team thinking a great QB is all they need. I don't think the football operations people feel that way in D.C.

There are some in the media who absolutely feel that way. There are great Quarterbacks who didn't win championships because management placed everything on their shoulders. 

Maybe the best thing Jayden accomplished was integrating new people in the offense as they came in. And realizing who was next man up. Getting the next men up involved.

That may help take the pressure off Adam Peters in the player acquisition department. At least on offense. 

They have work to do on defense. I'm not convinced you can stop the run with two linebackers. No matter how great those two are. My bias is three or four. If you run big nickel. It should be three d-linemen and three linebackers. I thought they had enough to win with and they did win but they never improved against the run. It was a season-long struggle. If the scheme wasn't part of the problem, there would have been noticeable improvement by the playoffs.

But Peters and Quinn know what they need. And if they have a scheme in mind on defense they will have to populate that scheme with people, mentally and physically, who can execute it. 

The other thing is, a defining quality of this Commanders Defense was the effort was off the charts. I can't help but think oftentimes they ran out of gas. To some extent, playing up tempo will gas your own defense. It makes the fourth quarter hard. Unless you have excellent second teamers you'll never be out of danger. Gunning the engine did not help this defense.

They played ball control at times. And the effects of up tempo were often offset by the NFL's best two-minute offense. Regardless, the defense couldn't put their capes on for four quarters. That's depth. Scheme. And complementary football. That's all got to get better.

I'm personally going to look at good tacklers and corners good at man coverage with power on the interior offensive line, offensive tackles who have tight end speed, an edge, and maybe a receiver or running back. We'll see what's happening in mock drafts. Try to define who's who and see what magic Peters can make in free agency.

But hands down, this was an impressive first season from Josh Harris and his football guys.

The Professor: Washington Plus the Over

The Philadelphia Eagles are 6-point favorites heading into the NFC Championship Game at Lincoln Financial Field. 

Eagles score 27.2 points a game. They give up 17.8. Washington scores 28.5 a game and gives up 23 a game. The average score the last five games between Philly and D.C. is Philly 30.4, Washington 29.6. That exceeds the over-under which is set at 47.5.

Eagles are 3-2 over that span. Skins are 1-1 in Jayden Daniels games.

The Public favor the Commanders covering in the game at 63 percent. The Public likes the Bills to cover on a short number at +1.5. If both win, it will mean a rematch of Super Bowl XXVI.

The Birds of course could earn a return engagement with the Kansas City Chiefs. And/or play the Bills for the first time in a Lombardi Trophy situation. 

The Numbers say Philly 26.9, Washington 25.3. Meaning at least by the numbers Washington covers. 

Here's CBS Sports predicting the game. True Business Review. Drew and Stew.

The 2010 Green Bay Packers won three road games and then the Super Bowl. That's the only team that comes to mind in comparing the achievements of the Commanders to Historical Super Bowl teams. Aaron Rodgers was not a rookie. 

Washington going all the way would be historic. While a rookie QB has won the league championship, no rookie QB has ever won the Super Bowl.

Not many would have predicted a historic year for the Commanders this past fall.

So I think the Commanders cover for sure. I'm tempted to side with the counter-intuitives who see a defensive struggle. These guys after three games out to know each other by now. Sometimes the third game is a dud. Either team could blow out the other.

But I think a lot of hair loss is involved in this game. Viral videos of these teams tearing their hair out is a good bet.

But you get two weeks off until the Super Bowl. Time enough to order some minoxidil. 

Triple OT. 

Tress Way returns an Eagle muff for the winning TD. 

Washington 43, Philly 37.

 

The Professor: Take Washington and the Over

In this upcoming semifinal round of the NFC Playoffs, the Betting Public is investing in the Washington Commanders and Houston Texans, thinking the huge point spreads can be covered by the veritable new kids on the block going up against the Super Bowl Favorites. 

Meaning, the anti-public choices are the Super Bowl Favorites with Sharps looking to clear out the suckers by big point spreads they figure the Bullies will more than cover in eye-catching blowouts of unprecedented proportions.

Ergo, the Public is going to Washington at 59% and Houston at 56%. Washington is +9.5 according to Wunderdog, while the Texans are +9.

Over under for the Skins Game is 55 points. Detroit scores 33.2 ppg while Washington gives up 23. Washington scores 28.5. Detroit coughs up 20.1. That averages out to Detroit 28.1, Washington 24.3. With the Lions getting the home field field goal, that's 31.1 to 24.3. That's a 6.8 point margin justifying playing the Commanders on a +9.5 point spread.

The Lions are 4-1 versus Washington the last five games. It didn't use to be that way. Washington leads the all-time series 31-16. 

Washington Assistant Anthony Lynn was an Offensive Coordinator with Dan Campbell before the advent of Ben Johnson. In 2022, Dan Quinn's Dallas defense held the Lions to 6 points. The Lions did better in 2023 losing to Quinn and the Cowboys 19-20. 

In that 2022 game, Detroit coughed up the football 5 times. Two picks and three fumbles lost. In 2023, the Lions took better care of the ball but still threw two picks. 

So Dan Quinn's Defense has gotten 7 turnovers against the Ben Johnson-Jared Goff Offensive Regime in Detroit.

Lions fans probably think it will take 7 turnovers for Washington to win. Maybe Dominique Hampton will be our Lorenzo Charles. 

This Washington Squad has the energy of that N.C. State surprise champion in 1983. The Commanders feel like a college basketball team having a magical run. 

The Wolfpack won the NCAA Championship against Hakeem Olajuwon and Phi Slama Jamma on a Lorenzo Charles jam with the great Jimmy Valvano running around trying to give a free hug out.

The NFL hasn't generated that kind of magic. Not at the College Ball level. But need I remind you, Washington has Magic Johnson. Washington has Jayden Daniels. Washington plays "Basketball on Grass".

As a nonnumeric stat, that Wolfpack year was also the year Washington won its first Super Bowl.

So I can see Detroit winning 31-24. Same old boring same old. No magic.

But I think I'll take the route of Homerism and take Washington and the Over.

Washington 54, Detroit 52.

Some Game Film on the Lions

November 10th, the Houston Texans picked off Jared Goff five times. The Lions, like the Commanders, won the game despite the turnover margin. But Houston had a good defensive game.

The 49ers had over 400 yards passing and nearly 500 yards offense. You know Kingsbury will study this relatively recent game, December 30th, to see what Dan Quinn's former Offensive Coordinator cooked up for Big D.

After beating Washington in their opener, the Bucs beat the Lions in Week 2. The takeaway is that you can still beat Detroit even though they move the ball like a hot knife through butter.

The Bills and Lions scored 90 points in one game on December 15th with the Bills nabbing 197 yards rushing and 362 yards passing. Goff threw five TD passes in a losing effort. Some say the best shootout game of the year. 

The best defensive performances against the Lions were the back-to-back Titans and Packers games. They were the only two games the Lions were held to less than 300 yards offense. In the weird Titans game, despite the mediocre yardage day, the Lions scored 52 points. 

The Packers held the Lions to 261 total yards November 3rd. The Packers may have seen something in that Lions rout. Such as the Titans turned the ball over 4 times. 

How the Lions adjusted might be gleaned from their second Packers game.

The Professor: Washington's Chi Wins

So, by the numbers, this upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Washington Commanders has all the indications, American and European Models, of being a typical down-to-the-wire NFL Playoff match. That is OK this young Commander squad happens to specialize in down-to-the-wire.

But this one goes into Overtime. 

Well that's what the NFL wants. What the NFL wants, it usually gets. 

From the points-per-second research below, I get Tampa Bay 31.9, Washington 28.4; Tampa 28.3, Washington 27.3; and Tampa 27.1, Washington 26.5.

The Point Spread has held steady at Tampa minus 3. I think it's a Pick'em. Probably should be off the board. Earlier, the Public was on Washington. Now Wunderdog has Tampa the Public favorite at 52%. This is not a game to bet on in my humble opinion. 

Tampa is 2-3 against the Commanders the last five games. Tampa is 5-4 at home. Washington is 5-3 in away games. Washington averages 28.5 points a game while giving up 23.0 points a game. Tampa averages 29.5 while giving up 22.3. 

That works out to Tampa 26.3, Washington 25.4. Less than one point. Averaging this and the points-per-second analysis, you get Tampa 28, Washington 27.

Washington covers. Tampa Wins. 

However, atmospheric nonnumerics has some good Washington news. 

The Commanders are 3-0 in rematches. The Bucs are 2-1 in rematches. They won time of possession in all 3 games. The Commanders lost time of possession in all three rematches.

Although it would be good for Washington to win time of possession, they have a history of winning games while losing time of possession. 

And although it would be good for Washington to run the ball, Tampa Bay has not given up a hundred yards rushing since the Kansas City game week 9. The Falcons, 49ers, and Cowboys all beat the Bucs while totaling less than a hundred rushing the football.

The Cowboys had only 31 yards rushing versus the Bucs and still won. This is an opportunity for the Commander passing game. Max involvement from the receiving corps and tight ends is crucial. The screen game could be war decisive as could a rollout counter draw.

Bucs have the numbers and a great coach. But I think Washington has the power of the Glow.

I'm going to say Washington wins 31.7 to 31.6. Bucs and Commanders set the record in double OT.

Bibliography

Tampa Bay is number 2 in average time of possession at 32:07 (1927 Seconds). At home they average 32:50 (1970 seconds). Their defense averages 27:53 (1673 seconds) on the field overall. 27:10 at home (1630 seconds). Their last three games the Bucs held the ball for 35:25 (2125 seconds), second in the league. Opponents had 24:35 (1475 seconds). 

Tampa had 181 drives (10.6 per game) this year. They scored on 48.1% of them (5.1 times a game). Their opponents had 182 drives (10.7 per game) and scored on 40.1% of them (4.3 times a game). The Bucs average 2.70 points per drive. Their opponents average 2.08.

Tampa scores 3.5 TDs a game. They allow 2.4 TDs a game.

Washington is tied with the 49ers at 13. They average 30:29 (1829 seconds). Their time of possession in away games is 29:25 (1765 seconds). Meaning their defense averages 29:31 (1771 seconds) on the field overall, 30:35 (1835 seconds) on the field in away games. Their last three games Washington had the ball for 26:57 (1617 seconds), 28th in the League over that span. They scored 89 points in those three games averaging 29.7 ppg (0.01836 points a second).

Opponents scored 76 points (25.3 ppg) on the Commanders over that time on 33:03 time of possession (1983 seconds). That's 0.0383 points a second.

The average per second for the last three games produces Tampa 31.9, Washington 28.4.

If you do full season points per second, ROUGHLY!, Tampa wins time of possession 31 to 29. Tampa wins 28.3 to 27.3.

Washington has had 176 drives (10.4 per game) this year scoring on 50% of them. They have surrendered 171 drives (10.1 per game) with opponents scoring on 41.5%. The Commanders scored 2.73 points a drive. Their opponents scored 2.25.

Washington scores 5.2 times a game, 3.2 scores being touchdowns. Opponents score 4.2 times a game with 2.6 being touchdowns.

Washington scores 3.2 TDs a game. They allow 2.6 TDs a game.

Tampa scores 4.65 times in this game averaging their scores a game with Washington's scores allowed a game, with 3.05 scores averaging out to TDs. That's 18.3 TD points. Season average field goal points 5.3. Two point six extra points. Point 9 other points. Tampa scores 27.1.

Washington scores 4.75 times in this game with 2.8 being touchdowns. 17.1 TD points. 6 Field goal points. 2.6 Extra points. Point 8 points other. Washington scores 26.5.

Washington possessed the ball 26:19 the first game v Tampa. They scored 20 points. They were 25% on third downs.

Tampa had the ball 33:41. They scored 37 points. They were 69% on third downs.

Washington's PPG Ave in away games is 26.4.

Tampa Bay scores 28.6 ppg in home games.

Tampa Bay has scored 502 points. 342 TD Points. 90 Field Goal Points. 54 Extra Points. 16 points other. 20.1 TD Points a game. 5.3 Field goal points a game. 3.2 Extra Point points a game. Point 9 points a game other.

Washington has scored 485 points. 324 TD Points. 102 Field Goal Points. 45 Extra Point points. 14 Points other. 19.1 TD points a game. 6 Field goal points a game. 2.6 Extra points a game. Point 8 points a game other.

Opponents scored 385 points on Tampa this year.

Opponents scored 391 on Washington this year.

Go Going to the Playoffs

It seems appropriate to play a bit of celebratory music in light of the Washington Commanders making the playoffs with their most victories in a season since 1991.

D.C. is often referred to as the Birthplace of the Go Go.  That goes back to the days of Sonny and Bobby Mitchell. Lombardi and George Allen. 

We're going to the Playoffs which feels a little like going to a Go Go.

Hey man, it feels like Dancing in the Street around here.

With a little March to the Trenches. 

Greg Cosell was on Inside the Birds recently and did an interesting analysis of some All-22 on the recently accomplished Eagles Upset. We don't hear of Greg much around here. This was the first take of his I've heard this year regarding Jayden Daniels.