The Professor: Washington's Chi Wins

So, by the numbers, this upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Washington Commanders has all the indications, American and European Models, of being a typical down-to-the-wire NFL Playoff match. That is OK this young Commander squad happens to specialize in down-to-the-wire.

But this one goes into Overtime. 

Well that's what the NFL wants. What the NFL wants, it usually gets. 

From the points-per-second research below, I get Tampa Bay 31.9, Washington 28.4; Tampa 28.3, Washington 27.3; and Tampa 27.1, Washington 26.5.

The Point Spread has held steady at Tampa minus 3. I think it's a Pick'em. Probably should be off the board. Earlier, the Public was on Washington. Now Wunderdog has Tampa the Public favorite at 52%. This is not a game to bet on in my humble opinion. 

Tampa is 2-3 against the Commanders the last five games. Tampa is 5-4 at home. Washington is 5-3 in away games. Washington averages 28.5 points a game while giving up 23.0 points a game. Tampa averages 29.5 while giving up 22.3. 

That works out to Tampa 26.3, Washington 25.4. Less than one point. Averaging this and the points-per-second analysis, you get Tampa 28, Washington 27.

Washington covers. Tampa Wins. 

However, atmospheric nonnumerics has some good Washington news. 

The Commanders are 3-0 in rematches. The Bucs are 2-1 in rematches. They won time of possession in all 3 games. The Commanders lost time of possession in all three rematches.

Although it would be good for Washington to win time of possession, they have a history of winning games while losing time of possession. 

And although it would be good for Washington to run the ball, Tampa Bay has not given up a hundred yards rushing since the Kansas City game week 9. The Falcons, 49ers, and Cowboys all beat the Bucs while totaling less than a hundred rushing the football.

The Cowboys had only 31 yards rushing versus the Bucs and still won. This is an opportunity for the Commander passing game. Max involvement from the receiving corps and tight ends is crucial. The screen game could be war decisive as could a rollout counter draw.

Bucs have the numbers and a great coach. But I think Washington has the power of the Glow.

I'm going to say Washington wins 31.7 to 31.6. Bucs and Commanders set the record in double OT.

Bibliography

Tampa Bay is number 2 in average time of possession at 32:07 (1927 Seconds). At home they average 32:50 (1970 seconds). Their defense averages 27:53 (1673 seconds) on the field overall. 27:10 at home (1630 seconds). Their last three games the Bucs held the ball for 35:25 (2125 seconds), second in the league. Opponents had 24:35 (1475 seconds). 

Tampa had 181 drives (10.6 per game) this year. They scored on 48.1% of them (5.1 times a game). Their opponents had 182 drives (10.7 per game) and scored on 40.1% of them (4.3 times a game). The Bucs average 2.70 points per drive. Their opponents average 2.08.

Tampa scores 3.5 TDs a game. They allow 2.4 TDs a game.

Washington is tied with the 49ers at 13. They average 30:29 (1829 seconds). Their time of possession in away games is 29:25 (1765 seconds). Meaning their defense averages 29:31 (1771 seconds) on the field overall, 30:35 (1835 seconds) on the field in away games. Their last three games Washington had the ball for 26:57 (1617 seconds), 28th in the League over that span. They scored 89 points in those three games averaging 29.7 ppg (0.01836 points a second).

Opponents scored 76 points (25.3 ppg) on the Commanders over that time on 33:03 time of possession (1983 seconds). That's 0.0383 points a second.

The average per second for the last three games produces Tampa 31.9, Washington 28.4.

If you do full season points per second, ROUGHLY!, Tampa wins time of possession 31 to 29. Tampa wins 28.3 to 27.3.

Washington has had 176 drives (10.4 per game) this year scoring on 50% of them. They have surrendered 171 drives (10.1 per game) with opponents scoring on 41.5%. The Commanders scored 2.73 points a drive. Their opponents scored 2.25.

Washington scores 5.2 times a game, 3.2 scores being touchdowns. Opponents score 4.2 times a game with 2.6 being touchdowns.

Washington scores 3.2 TDs a game. They allow 2.6 TDs a game.

Tampa scores 4.65 times in this game averaging their scores a game with Washington's scores allowed a game, with 3.05 scores averaging out to TDs. That's 18.3 TD points. Season average field goal points 5.3. Two point six extra points. Point 9 other points. Tampa scores 27.1.

Washington scores 4.75 times in this game with 2.8 being touchdowns. 17.1 TD points. 6 Field goal points. 2.6 Extra points. Point 8 points other. Washington scores 26.5.

Washington possessed the ball 26:19 the first game v Tampa. They scored 20 points. They were 25% on third downs.

Tampa had the ball 33:41. They scored 37 points. They were 69% on third downs.

Washington's PPG Ave in away games is 26.4.

Tampa Bay scores 28.6 ppg in home games.

Tampa Bay has scored 502 points. 342 TD Points. 90 Field Goal Points. 54 Extra Points. 16 points other. 20.1 TD Points a game. 5.3 Field goal points a game. 3.2 Extra Point points a game. Point 9 points a game other.

Washington has scored 485 points. 324 TD Points. 102 Field Goal Points. 45 Extra Point points. 14 Points other. 19.1 TD points a game. 6 Field goal points a game. 2.6 Extra points a game. Point 8 points a game other.

Opponents scored 385 points on Tampa this year.

Opponents scored 391 on Washington this year.