The Professor: Take Washington and the Over

In this upcoming semifinal round of the NFC Playoffs, the Betting Public is investing in the Washington Commanders and Houston Texans, thinking the huge point spreads can be covered by the veritable new kids on the block going up against the Super Bowl Favorites. 

Meaning, the anti-public choices are the Super Bowl Favorites with Sharps looking to clear out the suckers by big point spreads they figure the Bullies will more than cover in eye-catching blowouts of unprecedented proportions.

Ergo, the Public is going to Washington at 59% and Houston at 56%. Washington is +9.5 according to Wunderdog, while the Texans are +9.

Over under for the Skins Game is 55 points. Detroit scores 33.2 ppg while Washington gives up 23. Washington scores 28.5. Detroit coughs up 20.1. That averages out to Detroit 28.1, Washington 24.3. With the Lions getting the home field field goal, that's 31.1 to 24.3. That's a 6.8 point margin justifying playing the Commanders on a +9.5 point spread.

The Lions are 4-1 versus Washington the last five games. It didn't use to be that way. Washington leads the all-time series 31-16. 

Washington Assistant Anthony Lynn was an Offensive Coordinator with Dan Campbell before the advent of Ben Johnson. In 2022, Dan Quinn's Dallas defense held the Lions to 6 points. The Lions did better in 2023 losing to Quinn and the Cowboys 19-20. 

In that 2022 game, Detroit coughed up the football 5 times. Two picks and three fumbles lost. In 2023, the Lions took better care of the ball but still threw two picks. 

So Dan Quinn's Defense has gotten 7 turnovers against the Ben Johnson-Jared Goff Offensive Regime in Detroit.

Lions fans probably think it will take 7 turnovers for Washington to win. Maybe Dominique Hampton will be our Lorenzo Charles. 

This Washington Squad has the energy of that N.C. State surprise champion in 1983. The Commanders feel like a college basketball team having a magical run. 

The Wolfpack won the NCAA Championship against Hakeem Olajuwon and Phi Slama Jamma on a Lorenzo Charles jam with the great Jimmy Valvano running around trying to give a free hug out.

The NFL hasn't generated that kind of magic. Not at the College Ball level. But need I remind you, Washington has Magic Johnson. Washington has Jayden Daniels. Washington plays "Basketball on Grass".

As a nonnumeric stat, that Wolfpack year was also the year Washington won its first Super Bowl.

So I can see Detroit winning 31-24. Same old boring same old. No magic.

But I think I'll take the route of Homerism and take Washington and the Over.

Washington 54, Detroit 52.