The Washington Commanders are the Public's pick to win Sunday Night Football at a rate of 76% making the Atlanta Football Falcons the anti-Public choice to beat the Commanders and thrust Washington into a precarious playoff position.
Washington is a 4 point favorite at Home versus Atlanta according to Wunderdog. Meaning the game is a virtual draw at a neutral site. The Over Under is 47.5.
The Skins are 3-2 in the last five games versus Atlanta including last year's 24-16 Commander victory. Drake London caught 9 passes in that game. Darnell Mooney is also a worry.
Bijan Robinson is just under 1200 yards for the year and will certainly challenge the Commanders run defense.
Falcons Coach Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn in Atlanta in 2020 when Quinn was fired after 5 games. Coach Ra was Quinn's Defensive Coordinator. He also coached the secondary for the Washington Redskins 2012 Squad featuring Robert Griffin III.
He was Defensive Coordinator for the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams, a team that featured three ex-Redskin Assistants as Head Coach and Offensive and Defensive Coordinators.
Kliff Kingsbury's Arizona Cardinals were 1-1 versus Morris' Super Bowl Rams Squad. They also split with the Rams the following season, Kingsbury's last in Arizona.
The Falcons score 21.8 points a game. They give up 23.3 points a game. The Skins give up 23.2 points and score 28.8. The Falcons offense is 6th in passing, 12th in rushing. Their defense is 21st against the pass and 12th against the run.
The Commanders are 3rd in rushing and 16th in passing. They are 29th against the run and 4th against the pass on defense.
Bullwark Robinson has seven games with a rushing touchdown. Interestingly, the Falcons are 2-5 when Robinson scores one or more touchdowns. He is also a threat in the pass game having caught 56 balls.
The Falcons are getting 4 which is enough for them to cover in a game which averages out to Washington 26.05, Atlanta 22.5. The average is already over the Over.
Mitigating circumstances are: High degree of familiarity with sources and methods between coaching staffs. This familiarity helps the young Falcon QB as well as productive receivers and a good running game.
But familiarity versus unpredictability is also in play as the young Washington squad has had spikes in improvement in key football games resulting in surprisingly positive performances in areas perceived to be weaknesses.
I'm afraid the math and the Public necessitate a Falcons pick to cover. However, I'm picking the Commanders to win in a game too close for cardiac patients to bear.
Take the over.
Commanders 26, Falcons 25.9
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