The Professor: Take the Over and Washington to Win

According to Wunderdog, the betting public favors the Lions, the Vikings, and the Eagles all getting to 13-2 by close of NFL Business on Sunday or whenever the week officially ends. 

The Philadelphia Eagles, this week's opponent for our beloved Washington Commanders, are in a race for the first round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs. It is to my mind better to face the Eagles in the playoffs after having had a bye. 

If the Eagles have one weakness it is lack of focus. A bye gives them time to get distracted. It also interrupts the flow more than it heals. They will be rebooting the system mentally if not physically. Football teams are more like rockets than computers. They take a lot more to get them going again than to keep going. The Eagles, to state it differently, are a streaky team. 

Enter into the record the evidence that they've won 10 straight. Shortly before that streak began, various personages were calling for the Head Coach's head. 

The Eagles strike me as a team a Bernard Malamud villain would love to destroy. Hire the Follies to get them drunk during the bye week. They attend Jazz festivals. Have plenty of Sax before the fight. They're hungover on game day. Slow and punch drunk they lose the pennant. 

Some sort of outlandish deep state prank like that would be the only thing keeping this Eagles Team from taking this year's world's title. Since the likelihood of subterfuge is nil, yes, I think the Birds are this year's Super Bowl Champs.

And its why I think Washington winning this game is a harbinger of exiting the playoffs almost as soon as they get there. Because of their success this weekend, they will draw the eventual Super Bowl Champion in the Wild Card and because Washington has more holes than Swiss cheese, the Eagles will then dispatch our injury plagued Commanders in unceremonious, almost yawning fashion.

There is anti-public ground for betting the Commanders. They're getting 3 points from the Birds. The Public likes the Eagles at 65%. Meaning Philly is naturally two field goals better than the Commanders. But I think they are in reality two to three TDs better. The game should be Philly 42, Washington 21. 

It isn't going to be.

Let me remind you the last time Philly was on a streak like this they lost to the Washington Commanders. That was the year they lost to KC in the Super Bowl. AND they had previously embarrassed Washington in DC. 

The Commanders are rated 3rd in the League in Rushing. The Eagles have held 8 opponents to under 100 yards rushing. One of those was the Washington Commanders in their previous engagement. The Eagles have 39 sacks on the year. The Commanders surrendered 8 to the Saints. They expect starting center Tyler Biadasz back, the man many credit with keeping Jayden Daniels safe and the running game humming.

The average PPG is Philly 24.5, Washington 23. I guess you can short Philly the 3 or credit Washington the 3. The Over Under in the game is 45.

With the Commander Defense, Philly will get their average. So that means take the Over and Washington to win 26-25. It has all the earmarks of a flukish win with a feeling of imposter syndrome sneaking in, especially upon reviewing the box score afterwards. Philly will dominate everything but the score.

Noting that doom is then forecast for the Wild Card Game in Philly with the Eagles easily dispensing with the Commanders, 42-21. The Eagles then smash the remaining punks in the playoffs.

Only then do they lose focus.

If the Commanders lose, they shockingly win the opening Wild Card game and beat an unfocused Philly team to ultimately cough up a Super Bowl Opportunity to the Detroit Lions.

Detroit then coughs up the Super Bowl to the Denver Broncos. More so because every Lion is on IR.