Commanders Over Eagles

This is a bad case of he's just not that into you.

The Eagles aren't worried about the Commanders. Their sportswriters have that cock of the walk glint in their eyes. 

Best Offensive Line in the League, they say. Best Defensive Line in the League, they say. The Commanders and the Giants are not in the same league as the Eagles and Cowboys, they say.

They say a lot of things.

I need to do some housework first. No one should use my picks as investment advice. My record will be whatever the Commanders record ends up being. I'm picking them in every game. I don't think betting on any NFL team is wise until midseason when there is enough data on whether a team has made corrections or is stuck in limbo. The only thing I say is do your research before making your investments.

The Eagles are heavily favored. Their running game is way better than last year's Super Bowl squad. They are stopping the run. Sounds like a juggernaut to me. When will the Commanders Offense ever take the field? How will Sam Howell react to taking the field for the first time with five minutes left to go in the first half?

Sounds like a forfeit is in order.

How do you beat the Eagles? You rush seven. Blitz Cover Zero. You run the football. Play two tight ends. One RB. Run tight end screens. Jet action. Zone read. Keep them off the field. 

None of which I get the sense the Commanders are inclined to do. They like rushing four and passing the ball. They should consider the blitz against great teams like Philly. Bring in Toohill and Smith-Williams for a magnificent seven over a Cinqo De Mayo. Or the two rookie hosses Jones and Henry. Sprinkle a little Gregg Williams in with the JDR.

In fact, if the Eagles play ball control its an easy shut-out. If they can leverage Sam into having few possessions with no opportunity to redeem mistakes they might seduce him into producing NOTHING BUT sacks and picks. They want him brooding and on the bench watching Jalen and D'Andre embarrass an over rated Commander defense with a picture perfect running game.

They want to make Sam's lust for the Big Play WORSE. Then he'll give it back to Jalen and the Birds for more photo-oping the run. And Jacoby Brisset starts next week.

That's how the Commanders lose. They won't do what I think is how they win.

How they think they can win is how I have to pick the game.

Sam Howell passes for over 500 yards and 5 TDs. The running game produces 10 carries for 15 yards. Sam is sacked his obligatory six times. The Eagles rush for over 400 yards. D'Andre Swift rushs for 410 yards on 10 carries. Jalen Hurts throws five picks. The Commanders get zero sacks but QB hurries total twenty.

The Commanders win, 59-28.

This is why you don't bet my picks.