The Professor: Take the Over and the Titans to Cover

This week the Washington Commanders face the Tennessee Football Titans.

The Titans are averaging 18.4 points per game on Offense. On Defense, they give up 26.4 points a game.

The Commanders are averaging 27.8 points a game. They give up 23.1 points a game. 

The Titans are the Number One Defense against the pass at 169 yards a game. They are 8th against the run. On Offense, they are 30th in passing and 12th in rushing. The question with regard to their 3-8 record is how come they have not won more with that defense.

The answer is turnovers. The yards per game against the defense is impacted by the short fields the Titans have gifted their opponents. The anointed Super Champion Detroit Lions routed the Titans 52-14 but started five drives at or inside the Titan 30 yard line. All five drives ended in TDs. The Lions had all of 225 yards total offense only 61 through the air. The Titans are 3-7 when they cough up the ball one or more times. The one game they went without a turnover they lost but they beat the Texans after committing 3. They rank next to last in Turnover Differential.

The Titans hold a 3-2 record against Washington the last five matchups. Average score 21-19 Tennessee. The average score including 2024 points is 24-21 Washington. Suggesting 27-21 Washington with the 3-point home field bonus. Yet the field goal kicking of late has been volatile for the Commanders due to injury.

Titans are 2-4 on the road but won last week at Houston. Washington is 4-2 at home.

For Anti-Public aficionados, the Public Consensus is Washington at 68%. The Over Under is 44.5. Washington is favored by 5.5.

I guess it comes down to the Washington kicking game. All we have is the Dallas game for recent behavior.

Ergo, the Titans cover. Take the over. Washington wins 24-21.